Saturday, November 30, 2013

Get The Most Out Of Employee Stock Options

Hot Bank Stocks To Watch Right Now

An employee stock option plan can be a lucrative investment instrument if properly managed. For this reason, these plans have long served as a successful tool to attract top executives, and in recent years become a popular means to lure non-executive employees. Unfortunately, some still fail to take full advantage of the money generated by their employee stock. Understanding the nature of stock options, taxation and the impact on personal income is key to maximizing such a potentially lucrative perk.

What's an Employee Stock Option?
An employee stock option is a contract issued by an employer to an employee to purchase a set amount of shares of company stock at a fixed price for a limited period of time. There are two broad classifications of stock options issued: non-qualified stock options (NSO) and incentive stock options (ISO).

Non-qualified stock options differ from incentive stock options in two ways. First, NSOs are offered to non-executive employees and outside directors or consultants. By contrast, ISOs are strictly reserved for employees (more specifically, executives) of the company. Secondly, nonqualified options do not receive special federal tax treatment, while incentive stock options are given favorable tax treatment because they meet specific statutory rules described by the Internal Revenue Code (more on this favorable tax treatment is provided below).

NSO and ISO plans share a common trait: they can feel complex! Transactions within these plans must follow specific terms set forth by the employer agreement and the Internal Revenue Code.

Grant Date, Expiration, Vesting and Exercise
To begin, employees are typically not granted full ownership of the options on the initiation date of the contract (also know as the grant date). They must comply with a specific schedule known as the vesting schedule when exercising their options! . The vesting schedule begins on the day the options are granted and lists the dates that an employee is able to exercise a specific number of shares. For example, an employer may grant 1,000 shares on the grant date, but a year from that date, 200 shares will vest (the employee is given the right to exercise 200 of the 1,000 shares initially granted). The year after, another 200 shares are vested, and so on. The vesting schedule is followed by an expiration date. On this date, the employer no longer reserves the right for its employee to purchase company stock under the terms of the agreement.

An employee stock option is granted at a specific price, known as the exercise price. It is the price per share that an employee must pay to exercise his or her options. The exercise price is important because it is used to determine the gain (called the bargain element) and the tax payable on the contract. The bargain element is calculated by subtracting the exercise price from the market price of the company stock on the date the option is exercised.

Taxing Employee Stock Options
The Internal Revenue Code also has a set of rules that an owner must obey to avoid paying hefty taxes on his or her contracts. The taxation of stock option contracts depends on the type of option owned.

For non-qualified stock options (NSO):

The grant is not a taxable event.
Taxation begins at the time of exercise. The bargain element of a non-qualified stock option is considered "compensation" and is taxed at ordinary income tax rates. For example, if an employee is granted 100 shares of Stock A at an exercise price of $25, the market value of the stock at the time of exercise is $50. The bargain element on the contract is ($50 - $25) x 100=$2,500. Note that we are assuming that these shares are 100% vested.
The sale of the security triggers another taxable event: If the employee decides to sell the shares immediately (or less than a year from exercise), the transaction will be reported as a short-term capital gain (or loss) and will be subject to tax at ordinary income tax rates. If the employee decides to sell the shares a year after the exercise, the sale will be reported as a long-term capital gain (or loss) and the tax will be reduced. Incentive stock options (ISO) receive special tax treatment:

The grant is not a taxable transaction.
No taxable events are reported at exercise; however, the bargain element of an incentive stock option may trigger alternative minimum tax (AMT).
The first taxable event occurs at the sale. If the shares are sold immediately after they are exercised, the bargain element is treated as ordinary income.
The gain on the contract will be treated as a long-term capital gain if the following rule is honored: the stocks have to be held for 12 months after exercise and should not be sold until two years after the grant date. For example, suppose that Stock A is granted on January 1, 2007 (100% vested). The executive exercises the options on June 1, 2008. Should he or she wish to report the gain on the contract as a long-term capital gain, the stock cannot be sold before June 1, 2009. Other Considerations
Although the timing of a stock option strategy is important, there are other considerations to be made. Another key aspect of stock option planning is the effect that these instruments will have on overall asset allocation. For any investment plan to be successful, the assets have to be properly diversified. An employee should be wary of concentrated positions on any company's stock. Most financial advisors suggest that company stock should represent 20% (at most) of the overall investment plan. While you may feel comfortable investing a larger percentage of your portfolio in your own company, it's simply safer to diversify. Consult a financial and/or tax specialist to determine the best execution plan for your portfolio.

Bottom Line
Conceptually, options are an attractive payment method. What better way to encourage employees to participate in the growth of a company than by offering them a piece of the pie? In practice, however, redemption and taxation of these instruments can be quite complicated. Most employees do not understand the tax effects of owning and exercising their options. As a result, they can be heavily penalized by Uncle Sam and often miss out on some of the money generated by these contracts. Remember that selling your employee stock immediately after exercise will induce the higher short-term capital gains tax. Waiting until the sale qualifies for the lesser long-term capital gains tax can save you hundreds, or even thousands.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Analysts Bullish On Towers Watson Following Liazon Acquisition

Towers Watson & Co. (TW) is down slightly today, but analysts are optimistic that the stock can climb higher, given its acquisition of privately held Liazon Corporation for $125 million.

Liazon develops private benefit exchanges and online benefit markets for employees, an area where human resources and benefit solutions provider Towers Watson has already built a name for itself.

Analysts are looking at the acquisition favorably, even if the market is skeptical today. Deutsche Bank analysts Paul Ginocchio and Ato Garrett today reiterated their Buy rating on Towers Watson and raised their target price by $5 to $130.

From the note:

TW has gotten more bullish on the adoption rate of exchanges: The adoption rate of exchanges is happening faster than TW expected just 6 months ago. TW agrees with forecasts of 35-70m covered lives (employees + dependents) on an exchange in 5-yrs. TW expects middle market companies to potentially adopt faster than large market companies, thus it has acquired Liazon to meet that need now. OneExchange Active will continue to focus on the large market (>10,000 employees) while Liazon focuses on the mid-market (1,000 to 10,000) via its insurance brokerage sales network.

Liazon should help TW close the gap in the active exchanges: On 1/1/14, TW will have about 140,000 lives on its two active exchange platforms (40,000 on OneExchange Active and 100,000 on Liazon) and is targeting up to 1m lives for 1/1/15. AON has stated it will have over 600,000 covered lives on its exchange on 1/1/14, Bucks (Xerox) will have 400,000 and Mercer 165,000. The Liazon acquisition moves TW's size much closer to Mercer and puts TW in a position to capture 25-33% market share longer-term.

MKM Partners is also bullish about Towers' prospects. Analysts Darren Marcus and Harry Fong reiterated a Buy rating and $140 price target on the stock writing: "While Towers had an existing presence in the active employee exchange market, its offering catered predominantly to larger companies with over 10,000 employees. The Liazon acquisition complements Towers' existing platforms as it gives Towers access to smaller and mid-sized companies. With Liazon, Towers' can service virtually every market segment with a self and fully insured exchange product. Towers Watson clearly believes in the potential for private exchanges and is willing to invest to ensure it has a major presence in this space in the years to come."

Most IRA, 401(k) Balances Reached Precrisis Levels in 2011

The Investment Company Institute released on Thursday a pair of studies that show how far investors have come from the 2008 financial crisis.

A major indicator of how much better off savers are is their account balance, and IRA and 401(k) balances are looking much better than they were a few years ago, the studies found.

The study, “IRA Investor Profile: Traditional IRA Investors’ Activity, 2007–2011,” found that by 2011, IRA account balances for anyone younger than 70 were back up to their precrisis levels.

In 2007, the average account balance for investors between 25 and 59 was $53,620. After a steep drop in 2008, it climbed steadily to $57,550 in 2011.

The average balance for investors between 60 and 69 followed the same trajectory: $138,860 in 2007, increasing to $143,560 in 2011.

The oldest investors had a rougher ride. Their average balance in 2007 was over $186,000. After the 2008 drop-off, they started a slow climb, but 2010 saw another drop, falling from almost $171,000 to $164,230 in 2011.

IRI noted the seemingly less successful recovery in older participants’ account balances was likely to due to withdrawals. “Compared with the younger groups of traditional IRA investors,” according to the report, “these traditional IRA investors had almost no contribution activity (indeed, for most of them during most of the time analyzed they would not have been allowed to contribute), lower rates of rollover activity and much higher rates of withdrawal activity (since they were generally required to take withdrawals).”

Following the recession, the number of investors who were contributing to IRAs dropped, falling from 10.4% of investors in 2008 to 9% in 2011. Rollover activity slackened, too, with 3.2% of investors rolling over an account in 2011, down from 4.3% in 2008.

“Consistent investors in traditional IRAs largely stayed the course in investing in their traditional IRAs, reacting moderately to financial stresses during and since the financial crisis,” Sarah Holden, senior director of retirement and investor research at ICI, said in a statement. “Average account balances generally have bounced back for the consistent investors, and the data show only slight changes in these investors’ contribution, rollover and withdrawal rates.”

A report released jointly by ICI and the Employee Benefit Research Institute found average balances in 401(k) plans have recovered by almost a quarter. Between 2007 and 2011, balances increased 23.5%, the report found, despite the financial crisis cutting balances by nearly 35% between 2007 and 2008.

“The data confirm that, even through tough economic times, the discipline of 401(k) plans — staying the course by investing and continuing contributions — served savers well,” Paul Schott Stevens, ICI president and CEO, said in a statement. “Dollar-cost averaging and putting away money paycheck by paycheck have made a big difference in the bottom line for these savers.”

Participants and employers continuing to make contributions to their retirement plans was one factor in the increase, but EBRI/ICI found investment gains and reduced loan activity also contributed to the increase.

However, plans that received consistent contributions performed better than those benefiting only from better markets and fewer loans. Participants who contributed consistently had average account balances 60% higher at the end of 2011 than the average balance for all participants in the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database. The median balance for the consistent group was more than twice the median balance for the entire database.

Interestingly, younger participants with smaller initial balances saw more growth than older participants with larger initial balances.  “The percent change in average account balance of participants in their 20s was heavily influenced by the relative size of their contributions to their account balances and increased at a compound average rate of 41% per year between year-end 2007 and year-end 2011.”

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Check out Evensky’s 10 Tips for Retirement Success on ThinkAdvisor.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Year-End Dividend Strategies

Hard to believe but we're basically sixty days away from 2014.  It's time income-oriented investors considered locking in one more dividend payment before year-end. 

One simple strategy to accomplish this is by creating and then sorting a list of companies expected to make

one more dividend payment before the end of 2013.  Many websites maintain recent and past dividend payment records but I have found Dividend.com to be one of the best sources of upcoming dividend information.  Most of their information is free… and near the top you can click on the search ex-dividend dates tab.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with ex-dividend dates or other basic dividend terminology, reviewing some of my previous articles will get you up to speed.  Check out Three Tips For New Dividend Investors as well as the Securities and Exchange website for a good explanation of ex-dividend dates.

Suffice it to say, an upcoming dividend payment is not reason enough to invest in a company.  It's simply a starting point to builda list of companies based on the time of year.  If the ex-date parameters you enter at Dividend.com are today's date and the end of year, you will see hundreds of choices, which you can then skinny down based on other factors.

Using the criteria I set forth in my article last month: Three Easy Ways to Select & Compare Dividend Stocks  dividend growth (track record), pay-out ratio, and 52-week trading range — along with a targeted annual dividend yield near or above 3%, you'll see that McDonalds (MCD), Consolidated Edison (ED), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) offer investors near-term income and possible long-term growth.

 

Top Cheap Stocks To Watch For 2014

Source:  Data comprised using Morningstar.com,Dividend.com, and public research reports from S&P and TheStreet.com. 
All data should be considered as approximate and not intended to imply any future benefit.

These three companies are part of a distinctive club for dividend paying stocks called Dividend Champions.  Each has consistently raised their annual dividend payments for 25 consecutive years.  That's an exceptional track record of dividend increases, underscored by payment increases during two of the worst market busts (the dot.com and real-estate bubbles). 

That characteristic may be reassuring and good for fighting off inflation, however past performance is not indicative of future returns.  It's not uncommon for some companies to stay on the list simply by increasing their dividend by a mere 1% or less.  Investors today need to monitor their stocks on an ongoing basis for indications that a company may not raise their dividend, or decrease it.  One way to do this is by watching a company's dividend payout ratio. 

Once again, these same three companies stand out.  McDonalds and Exxon Mobil have very conservative payout ratios.  Con Ed's 70% is slightly above my preferred level of 60%, but compares favorably against other popularly-held utilities such as Southern Company (SO) 100% and Duke Energy (DUK) 110%.   While ED carries the higher ratio, investors are somewhat compensated for the extra risk in terms of a higher annual dividend yield, which is nearly 1.5% higher than XOM.

Next, if you look at where these three stocks are currently trading compared to their 52-week highs and third party estimated targets shown in the table, there appears to be room for upside growth.  The 52-week high is fairly easy to find at most financial websites.  Investors can also access third-party research reports through online brokerage firms such as Scottrade or TD Ameritrade.  Obviously company valuations can change over time, and it could take one, two or even five years before these stocks reach those levels but, as you develop a disciplined approach to selecting income producing stocks, data such as this helps you move toward action instead of being stuck in analysis paralysis.    

With year-end approaching, finding good dividend paying stocks with solid track records, low pay-out ratio, and room for growth can help take unwelcome surprises out of your retirement accounts. 

Disclaimer:  Long;  MDC, ED, and XOM;  For informational purposes only.  Please consult with a financial professional before investing.

Let me know if you enjoyed this quiz by leaving a comment… and check out my Free Guide, Three Tips for Building Your Own Investment Account.

Follow Robert on Forbes.com or on Twitter @robertlaura

Check out some of  Robert Laura's recent celebrity interviews about money, investing and retirement:
Three Tips for New Dividend Investors

Three Easy Ways To Select & Compare Dividend Stocks

Two Truths And A Lie About Dividends

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Stocks Hitting 52-Week Lows

Top Financial Companies For 2014

YuMe (NYSE: YUME) shares fell 22.98% to reach a new 52-week low of $6.00. YuMe's trailing-twelve-month profit margin is 2.42%.

Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE: CLI) shares reached a new 52-week low of $19.12. Mack-Cali's PEG ratio is -2.63.

Rocket Fuel (NASDAQ: FUEL) shares dipped 11.85% to touch a new 52-week low of $41.74 on Q3 results.

American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) shares touched a new 52-week low of $1.89. American Superconductor shares have dropped 39.25% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 26.62% in the same period.

Posted-In: 52-Week LowsNews Movers & Shakers Intraday Update Markets

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Around the Web, We're Loving... Learn to Use Trading Platforms Like Hedge Fund Traders do Rumsfeld: Denial of Benefits to Fallen Soldiers' Families 'Inexcusable' Come See How the Pro's Trade in this Exclusive Webinar Facebook, Baidu Lead Big Caps Beating Shutdown What Should You Know About AMZN? Most Popular Did Twitter Make a Huge Mistake Pricing Shares at $26? Groupon Earnings Preview: In-Line Results Expected, US Booking Progress 3 Reasons to be Bullish about Gold Why an Apple iWatch Has Better Chances Than Google Glass Twitter Prices at $26; First Day's Trading Could Be Volatile Microsoft COO Another Internal Candidate for the Company's CEO Related Articles (AMSC + CLI) Stocks Hitting 52-Week Lows View the discussion thread. Partner Network #marketfy-ae-block { display: none; border: 2px solid #0a3f75; overflow: hidden; width: 300px; height: 125px; text-align: center; background-color: #45719E; position: relative; z-index: 1; } #marketfy-ae-block a { display: block; width: 300px; height: 125px; position: relative; z-index: 2; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text { color: #f9fc99; padding: 0px 0 0 0; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text-start { font-size: 12px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown { padding: 5px 0 5px 0; font-size: 26px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup { padding: 5px 47px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup:hover { background-color: #457a1a; } #marketfy-ae-block #marketfy-ae-block-logo { display: block; padding: 3px 0 0 0; margin: 0; } #marketfy-ae-block-logo { text-indent: -9999px; } #marketfy-ae-block-free { display: block; position: absolute; top: 7px; right: -23px; width: 80px; height: 16px; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; opacity: 1; -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -ms-transform: rotate(45deg); transform: rotate(45deg); font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal; color: #333333; background-color: yellow; z-index: 500; text-shadow: 1px 1px #999999; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow { position: relative; width: 60px; height: 60px; z-index: 10; margin: -80px 0 13px -21px; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow img { height: 60px; width: auto; } Marketfy's International
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Monday, November 18, 2013

Introduction To Retirement Money Market Accounts

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Financial advisors almost invariably counsel their clients to invest their retirement savings in growth instruments such as stocks and real estate during their working years. But the time eventually comes when at least a portion of retirement assets must be shifted into more conservative holdings that pose less market risk. The need for growth gives way to the need for capital preservation and liquidity, and there are relatively few investment vehicles that can satisfy both of these objectives at the same time. Money market accounts are one such instrument that typically pay slightly higher rates than traditional savings or checking accounts.

What is the Money Market?
In order to understand how money market accounts work, it is necessary to have a basic knowledge of the debt markets. All debt instruments can be divided into two categories: the capital market and the money market. Any debt instrument with a term to maturity of more than 270 days is considered to be capital market security, while all debt securities with a maturity of 270 days or less are considered to be money market instruments. These instruments include commercial paper, treasury securities with maturities of nine months or less, whiskey warehouse receipts and repurchase agreements. The constant maturation of these short-term debts make the money market the most liquid segment of the fixed income market.

Money Market Accounts
There are two basic types of money market accounts. The ones that are offered by banks and other savings institutions are essentially a type of premium savings account that invests directly in money market securities. The other is offered through a mutual fund that invests in money market instruments. The vast majority of retirement accounts offered by banks, mutual funds, investment advisers and brokerage firms use either a proprietary money market mutual fund account or that of a major mutual fund company. The number of institutions that use another fund company's money market fund, however, seems to be shrinking. More and more institutions now offer their own proprietary money funds that pay interest according to a tiered schedule.

There are several reasons why money market funds are used to hold cash in retirement plans:

Liquidity – Money market transactions are always completed either the same day as the purchase or sale request is received, or the next business day, if the request is received after the close of business that day. There is no lag between the settlement and transaction dates as there can be for other types of funds, and sales charges are seldom, if ever, assessed when shares are purchased or redeemed. Money market accounts that are used in retirement plans and IRAs are also generally exempt from many of the restrictions that banks and credit unions place on taxable retail money market funds and accounts, such as a monthly limit on the number of withdrawals and minimum required account balances. Virtually all IRA and retirement plan distributions are taken from money market funds or accounts; if securities are sold in order to make the distribution they are always swept into the money market fund before the proceeds can be distributed. IRA owners who need to take distributions should therefore keep an appropriate portion of their assets here, so they can easily make withdrawals. Safety and stability – Although many of the securities in money market funds are backed by the U.S. Treasury, they are not guaranteed instruments in and of themselves. The vast majority of these funds, however, maintain a constant price of $1 per share at all times, although on very rare occasions the share price of a handful of money market funds has dipped below this price. Of course, the money market funds offered by any bank or credit union are federally insured by the FDIC. Money market funds are consequently a key alternative for conservative investors who wish to avoid risking losses in the markets. Higher interest – Money market funds typically pay higher rates of interest than other types of demand deposit accounts such as checking and savings accounts. The rates of interest that the funds pay will fluctuate with the current interest rate environment, but they will typically float at a slightly higher level than the rates offered in other types of liquid accounts. The interest that they pay accrues on a daily basis, and the share price is not affected by changes in interest rates. Some money market funds are tiered to pay a higher rate of interest on amounts that exceed a certain threshold, such as $10,000. It should be noted, however, that money market funds are not an appropriate vehicle for long-term growth; they are essentially cash accounts and thus will never pay a rate that materially outpaces inflation. All interest that is generated in the money market in an IRA or retirement plan, however, is nontaxable until it is withdrawn (or never taxed for Roth plans and accounts). Of course, there are money market funds that pay state and federal tax-free interest as well, but the tax advantages of these funds are generally negated inside retirement plans. Convenience – The safety and liquidity provided by money market accounts and funds allow investors to place their money there without worry. Most retirement accounts will automatically sweep the proceeds from sale transactions as well as all deposits that are not specified for another use into money market funds, where they will begin earning interest on the date of deposit. Money market sweep accounts can guarantee that all of the client's spare cash is at least earning a minimal rate of interest when it is not otherwise being used. The Bottom Line
Money market accounts and funds hold billions of investor dollars around the world. They are commonly used in retirement accounts because of their safety, liquidity and convenience, and because they pay competitive rates of interest. While the current interest rate environment has made money market funds somewhat less attractive for moderate and aggressive investors, it is still the vehicle of choice for many retirement savers who do not wish to risk their principals. For more information on money market funds and accounts, consult your investment or financial advisor.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Winning Returns From Short-Term Junk Bonds

NEW YORK ( TheStreet ) -- Concerned about rocky markets, investors have been dumping intermediate-term bonds and shifting to short-term issues. Short-term bonds tend to be more resilient when interest rates rise. The flows have been particularly notable among high-yield funds, which hold bonds that are rated below-investment grade.

While investors have withdrawn $3.3 billion from the intermediate-term SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) this year, SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond (SJNK) recorded inflows of $1.6 billion, and Pimco 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond (HYS) attracted $2.1 billion, according to IndexUniverse.com. Strong returns have attracted the cash. For the year, SPDR Barclays Short Term returned 3.5%, compared to 1.8% for SPDR's intermediate term exchange-traded fund, according to Morningstar. In comparison, the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate index lost 3.2%.

For investors seeking to diversify fixed-income portfolios, the short-term high-yield funds can be intriguing choices. "The short-term ETF gives you an attractive yield with less volatility than you get with longer bonds," says David Mazza, head of ETF investment strategy for State Street Global Advisors, which operates the SPDR funds.

SPDR Barclays Short Term currently yields 4.5%, compared to a yield of 5.9% for the intermediate-term SPDR high-yield ETF. In comparison, iShares Core Total US Bond Market (AGG), which tracks the Barclays Aggregate, yields 2.5%. Make no mistake, high-yield bonds of all kinds can suffer sizable losses in downturns. During the turmoil of 2008, the average high-yield mutual fund lost 26.4%, and short-term issues also suffered big losses. But below-investment grade bonds can be appealing because they can deliver solid long-term returns. During the past five years, the SPDR intermediate high-yield ETF returned 10.7% annually, compared to 4.6% for the Barclays Aggregate. The most important reason to consider high-yield funds is they can help to diversify portfolios, sometimes rising when most bonds are falling. When rates climb, Treasuries and other high-grade bonds tend to fall as investors bid down existing bonds and search for new issues with higher yields. Rising yields can also hurt high-yield bonds somewhat because their income becomes less competitive. But high-yield bonds can appreciate during times when a growing economy is pushing up rates. In such periods, investors tend to bid up high yield prices because default risks are lower.

To limit risks in difficult periods, some investors may prefer holding a short-term high yield fund. But over the long term, funds with greater average maturities and higher yields are likely to outperform. One solution is to hold a short-term fund and a longer portfolio. David Mazza of State Street Global Advisors argues his two high-yield ETFs can complement each other. While the short-term funds has securities with maturities of 0 to five years, the intermediate choice has most of its assets in maturities of five to 10 years.

To hold short-term high-yield securities in an actively managed mutual fund, consider Osterweis Strategic Income (OSTIX). This year the fund returned 4.5%. Portfolio manager Carl Kaufman has the flexibility to buy a variety of kinds of bonds, but in recent years he has focused on short-term high yield issues. He says that the short bonds provide relatively attractive yields. "You are not getting paid a whole lot more to buy an eight-year bond than you are to buy a two-year bond," he says.

While many bond funds hold hundreds of issues, Kaufman runs a more concentrated portfolio, owning about 100 names. He shops carefully, looking for undervalued names. When he can't find bargains, Kaufman holds cash. At the end of the second quarter, the fund had 14% of assets in cash. That helped to cushion the fund when interest rates rose in June and many high-yield bonds sank.

Kaufman often puts his cash stake to work when high-yield bonds suffer one of their periodic corrections. During the downturn of 2008, he scooped up bonds at depressed prices. He figures that another buying opportunity will appear soon enough. "The market is very nervous right now," he says. "If there are surprises from the Federal Reserve or the economy, bonds will fall, and that will be a good time to buy." Follow @StanLuxenberg This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Stan Luxenberg is a freelance writer specializing in mutual funds and investing. He was executive editor of Individual Investor magazine.

Friday, November 15, 2013

As Europe Lags, America Builds a Drone Empire

A US Navy X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System aircraft is towed into the hanger bay aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. BusAlamyA US Navy X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System aircraft is towed into the hanger bay aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush -- the first aircraft carrier to successfully catapult launch an unmanned aircraft from its flight deck. With a fiscal 2013 defense budget of nearly $614 billion, the United States is widely known to be a big spender on defense. By some estimates, U.S. defense spending accounts for nearly 60 percent of the $1.19 trillion the top 10 military powers spent on defense in 2011. In fact, our country allocates more than five times more money to defense than does its closest spending rival, China. And that's not the half of it. In the cutting-edge field of military unmanned aerial vehicles, the United States has such a huge lead over its rivals that it makes their combined UAV fleets look like a rounding error in a world that's essentially 100 percent dominated by U.S. drones. Pax Americana As The Wall Street Journal recently reported, the U.S. military commands a fleet of 429 "large drone" aircraft such as the General Atomics Predator and Northrop Grumman (NOC) Global Hawk. Meanwhile, America's smaller drones, built by everyone from Boeing (BA) to Textron (TXT) to tiny AeroVironment (AVAV), maker of the ubiquitous Raven man-portable UAV, number in the thousands. In contrast, the military of the United Kingdom, not even a U.S. rival but a close ally, boasts a fleet of precisely 10 large drones, most of which we built for them, and the rest imported from Israel. Italy has nine, France, four, and Germany has three. As a result, when allied forces need a drone to "put eyes" on a target, more often than not, they have to ring up the U.S. military to get one. Who You Gonna Call? For allied nations, that has to be embarrassing -- but it's a situation unlikely to change soon. As the Journal reports, European defense giant European Aeronautic Defence & Space (EADSY), the parent company of Airbus, is only just now beginning to test a prototype pilotless helicopter -- whereas in the U.S., pilotless helos from Northrop called "Fire Scouts" have been in active service for years. True, European defense contractors such as EADS, BAE Systems (LSE: BA), and Dassault Aviation have succeeded in putting a few smaller drones in the air, and have dreams of prototypes of larger craft. But budget cuts, exacerbated by an ongoing economic crisis and also "territorial" squabbling among EU governments over ownership of defense companies, have hobbled the Continent's ability to develop robotic aircraft of any real size or capability. By some estimates, Europe is as much as 10 years behind the U.S. in drone technology development. The World Is Our Unmanned Oyster In the absence of a "homegrown" drone program, Europe remains largely dependent on the kindness of strangers for its drones -- in other words, the willingness of U.S. companies such as Northrop and General Atomics, and Israeli firms like Israel Aerospace Industries, to sell them the large drones they need. Right now, France is in the process of petitioning the U.S. Congress to sell it 16 General Atomics Reaper drones. If and when the sale goes through, though, it should mean at least $1.5 billion for General Atomics. In future years, U.S. defense contractors could rack up even bigger sales. Australia, for example, already a patron of Israel's IAI, is gearing up to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a new maritime surveillance drone (dubbed "BAMS") being developed by Northrop Grumman. Aerospace consulting firm Teal Group, based in Reston, Va., estimates that by 2023, the global drone market could grow to as much as $11.6 billion in annual sales. For the time being -- and perhaps for as much as a decade in the future, until Europe catches up -- most of these sales should be ours for the taking.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Adept Technology Inc (ADEP) or iRobot Corporation (IRBT): The Best Small Cap Robotics Stock?

Small cap robotics stocks Adept Technology Inc (NASDAQ: ADEP) and iRobot Corporation (NASDAQ: IRBT) have both been putting in a great performance for investors, but which is the better robotics stock for investors? I should mention that we have had Adept Technology in our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio since mid-September and we are already sitting on a 71.38% return so far plus we have just added iRobot Corporation to our portfolio because we see the robotics subsector improving as companies aim to reduce overhead and improve efficiencies through machine to machine (M2M) automation.

What Are Adept Technology and iRobot Corporation?

Small cap iRobot Corporation was founded in 1990 by Massachusetts Institute of Technology roboticists with the vision to make practical robots a reality by developing and manufacturing robotic solutions to address real-world problems. iRobot Corporation says its home robots are revolutionizing the way people clean with more than 8 million home robots having been sold worldwide – including the award-winning iRobot Roomba floor vacuuming robot. In addition, more than 5,000 iRobot Corporation robots have been delivered to military and civil defense forces worldwide to perform dangerous search, reconnaissance and bomb-disposal missions while the state-of-the-art Ava mobile robotics platform includes the Ava™ 500 video collaboration robot which delivers autonomous telepresence to the enterprise market and the FDA-approved RP-VITA telemedicine robot which expands the reach of medical care by connecting physicians with patients from anywhere in the world.

Meanwhile, small cap Adept Technology was founded in 1983 and calls itself the largest US based manufacturer of industrial robots as it provides specialized, cost-effective robotics systems and services to high-growth markets such as Packaged Goods, Life Sciences, Disk Drive/Electronics and Semiconductor/Solar plus traditional industrial markets such as machine tool automation and automotive components. More than 25,000 non-captive Adept Technology robots along with more than 30,000 controlled robots are already installed worldwide.

What You Need to Know or be Warned About With ADEP and IRBT

Here is what you need to know about both robotics stocks:

Adept Technology. Last Thursday, Adept Technology reported a 19.4% fiscal first quarter 2014 revenue increase to $13.6 million, gross margin of 46.1% (which expanded nearly 5%) and adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million verses a 2013 first quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.4 million. The CEO noted:

"The business is stabilizing and we are continuing to focus on improving our bottom line while growing the top line. We are pleased with the progress in the first quarter and have made substantial progress in restructuring and repositioning the business, but recognize we still have a lot of work to do." 

Meaning the company and the stock has room to grow and improve. In the earnings call (available on Seeking Alpha here), Adept Technology's CEO commented that the results from the recent MOTEK show in Stuttgart where the company showcased fixed and mobile products showed that total leads were up for this show year-over-year and that over 60% of leads for that show were for mobile products in target applications. He stated this further validated their belief that this market is in fact shifting from solely fixed applications and gradually moving into the mobile and even collaborative robot applications plus he added:

"Our businesses no longer just about spares our services or training. It's about finding ways to lower our customers' cost of ownership through advanced service programs and finding proactive solutions for our install base moving forward. This growth is very encouraging but over the longer term, I will expect our service revenue to grow slightly higher than the business as a whole."

iRobot Corporation. Yesterday, iRobot Corporation announced it was bringing the next-generation Roomba cleaning system that revolutionizes robotic vacuum cleaning to market with the iRobot Roomba 880 vacuum cleaning robot:

iRobot Corporation has been working on the Roomba 880 for more than four years and has submitted 12 patents for the new cleaning system which costs $699 and is available initially only online in North America while older models like the Roomba 600 and 700 series robots start at $349. The Roomba 880 is considered to be the biggest leap forward in robotic cleaning since the original Roomba debuted back in 2002. However and in mid-October, iRobot Corporation reported so-so results with revenue coming in at $124.5 million verses $126.3 million along with net income of $7.8 million verses $15.2 million thanks to higher expenses. With that said, Home Robot revenue rose 16% thanks to strong growth in Japan while the Defense & Security business was impacted by the government shutdown. 

Share Performance: Adept Technology vs. iRobot Corporation

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On Tuesday, small cap Adept Technology fell 0.10% to $10.18 (ADEP has a 52 week trading range of $2.38 to $11.50 a share) for a market cap of $110.62 million plus the stock is up 291.5% since the start of the year and up 172.9% over the past five years while iRobot Corporation fell 2.94% to $32.75 (IRBT has a 52 week trading range of $16.25 to $41.12 a share) for a market cap of $937.90 million plus the stock is up 74.8% since the start of the year and up 207.2% over the past five years. Here is a look at the long term charts for both Adept Technology and iRobot Corporation:

As you can see from the above chart, Adept Technology has tended to underperform iRobot Corporation over the long-term. However and if you look at the most recent technical charts for both small cap robotics stocks, Adept Technology's chart is looking more bullish:

The Bottom Line. There are plenty of reasons to stay bullish about small cap robotics stocks Adept Technology and iRobot Corporation as it looks like either might make a good addition to your portfolio.

SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) has an open position in ADEP and IRBT. To find out what other open positions SCN EO currently has, and to learn why so many traders and investors are relying on this premium subscription service, click here to find out more.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014

One of the first lessons beginning investors learn is the value of diversification in preventing big losses. But in order to reap the largest gains when they make the right call, aggressive investors often use concentrated portfolios to tap into trends they see as potentially providing explosive growth opportunities.

Unfortunately, those big bets don't always work out. Hedge fund giant John Paulson has learned that lesson well this year with his gold-oriented fund, which has lost 65% of its value so far in 2013. Let's take a look at what happened to Paulson and what it can teach you about taking concentrated positions in your own portfolio, especially in volatile investments like gold.

Image source: Wikimedia Commons.

The Paulson story
John Paulson made his name by making investments that gained in value when subprime mortgages crashed in the lead-up to the financial crisis. Even now, Paulson is keeping a close eye on housing, but lately, he's been playing the space from the other direction with bullish bets on mortgage insurance companies MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG  ) and Radian Group (NYSE: RDN  ) . His argument is basically that as long as the housing market has hit bottom, prospects for further losses are minimal, allowing mortgage insurers to make up for past losses.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG)

Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    This past quarter was terrible for gold. In fact, it was the once-shiny metal's worst quarter in almost 50 years, and its price plunged 23%. That made for a rough quarter for gold miners, including Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) , which reports its latest quarterly results on July 25. Does this mean investors are in for a dull quarter?

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Northgate Minerals Corporation(NXG)

Northgate Minerals Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, developing, processing, and mining gold and copper deposits in Canada and Australia. Its principal producing assets include 100% interests in the Fosterville and Stawell Gold mines in Victoria, Australia; and the Kemess South mine located in north-central British Columbia, Canada. The company was formerly known as Northgate Exploration Limited and changed its name to Northgate Minerals Corporation in May 2004. Northgate Minerals Corporation was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Top Oil Companies To Own For 2014: Claude Resources Inc.(CGR)

Claude Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal properties, as well as production and marketing of minerals in Canada. It primarily explores for gold in northern Saskatchewan and northwestern Ontario. The company holds interests in the Seabee gold mine located at Laonil Lake, northern Saskatchewan; and the Madsen property that consists of 6 contiguous claim blocks totaling approximately 10,000 acres, located in the Red Lake Mining District of northwestern Ontario. It also holds interest in the Amisk Gold project, which covers an area of 13,800 hectares in the province of Saskatchewan. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Saskatoon, Canada.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Newmont Mining Corporation(Holding Company)

Newmont Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and production of gold and copper properties. The company?s assets or operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. As of December 31, 2009, it had proven and probable gold reserves of approximately 93.5 million equity ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 27,500 square miles. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Golden Star Resources Ltd(GSS)

Golden Star Resources Ltd., a gold mining and exploration company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of gold properties. It owns and operates the Bogoso/Prestea gold mining and processing operation that covers approximately 40 kilometers of strike along the southwest-trending Ashanti gold district in western Ghana; and the Wassa open-pit gold mine located to the east of Bogoso/Prestea in southwest Ghana. The company also has an 81% interest in the Prestea underground gold mine located in Ghana. In addition, it holds interests in various gold exploration projects in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Cote d?Ivoire, as well as holds and manages exploration properties in Brazil in South America. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sean Williams]

    Golden Star Resources (NYSEMKT: GSS  )
    It's simple physics: The bigger they are, the harder they fall. When gold prices nosedived earlier this week, gold miners with historically higher operating costs took the brunt of the hit. For the most part, that meant that development-stage miners, and those operating in Africa, where labor and political costs make cost-effective mining a challenge, took it on the chin. Possibly no stock was hammered more than Golden Star Resources, a gold miner in Ghana, which lost about one-quarter of its value on Monday alone.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)

New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Even bad news has failed to dent the rise in gold stocks today. NewGold (NGD), for instance, has gained 1.8% to $7.49 despite the fact that the wall of one of its mines collapsed. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG)

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    In terms of individual companies, there are several good choices, but these can behave very differently. Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) , for example, missed revenue expectations and beat earnings expectations in its last earnings release. But despite the beat, EPS shrank considerably from a year earlier on a GAAP basis. The stock has been fairly flat ever since. Conversely, First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) reported strong revenue growth and a small bump in profits, sending the stock higher since the announcement. First Majestic reported increased cash costs and tightening margins, largely driven by lower silver prices. Each of these companies faces pressure from increasing production costs and environmental concerns.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    It is no secret that precious metals companies have been taking a pounding for some time now. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) , the gold and silver ETFs, have been hard hit and operating companies like First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX  ) have been hit even harder. Through all of these struggles, and in some cases because of them, one precious metals company continues to look attractive for the long term: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) .

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    While many precious-metals companies have been in a slump of late, there is one that belongs perpetually in your portfolio: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) . The company is not like other miners -- including Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) -- in that it has a unique business plan that insulates it against many of the vagaries of the mining business. Moreover, because silver will always have a significant industrial demand component, even with the heightened volatility you see in the silver market, maintaining exposure to silver is appropriate.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    Despite the weakness seen in precious metals a few weeks ago, silver has been relatively stable ever since mid-April, with the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) trading in a dollar-wide range ever since. With the presidents of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks��releasing conflicting statements, turmoil may be just around the corner. Miners like Pan American (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) are still facing operating challenges, while silver streaming darling Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) struggles as well.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: CME Group Inc.(CME)

CME Group Inc. operates the CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX regulatory exchanges worldwide. The company provides a range of products available across various asset classes, including futures and options on interest rates, equity indexes, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, foreign exchange, weather, and real estate. It offers various products that provide a means of hedging, speculation, and asset allocation relating to the risks associated with interest rate sensitive instruments, equity ownership, changes in the value of foreign currency, credit risk, and changes in the prices of commodities. CME Group owns and operates clearing house, CME Clearing, which provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts and counter derivatives transactions; and also engages in real estate operations. Its primary trade execution facilities consist of its CME Globex electronic trading platform and open outcry trading floors, as well as privately negotiated transact ions that are cleared and settled through its clearing house. In addition, the company offers market data services comprising live quotes, delayed quotes, market reports, and historical data services, as well as involves in index services business. CME Group?s customer base includes professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, and governments. It has strategic partnerships with BM&FBOVESPA S.A., Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, Singapore Exchange Limited, Green Exchange, Dubai Mercantile Exchange, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, and Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, S.A.B. de C.V., as well as joint venture agreement with Dow Jones & Company. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jeff Reeves]

    Options traders and commodity junkies should recognize CME Group (CME) as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a financial entity that operates a host of futures exchanges as well as providing its own exchange-traded products and derivatives.

Top 10 Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Australian Dollar(AU)

AngloGold Ashanti Limited primarily engages in the exploration and production of gold. It also produces silver, uranium oxide, and sulfuric acid. The company conducts gold-mining operations in South Africa; continental Africa, including Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Namibia, and Tanzania; Australia; and the Americas, which include Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. It also has mining or exploration operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Colombia. As of December 31, 2010, the company had proved and probable gold reserves of 71.2 million ounces. The company has a strategic alliance with Thani Dubai Mining Limited to explore, develop, and operate mines across the Middle East and parts of North Africa. AngloGold Ashanti Limited, formerly known as Vaal Reefs Exploration and Mining Company Limited, was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Holly LaFon]

    The second largest market cap company, at $11.22 billion, is Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU). Its afternoon stock price of $29.15 is within 5% of its three-year low, and has experienced a more significant drop than Newmont ��it is down 44.9% from its high price of $52.86 a share.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    We've seen the flip side of that trend play out in recent years, as rock-bottom interest rates in the U.S. have encouraged investment in higher-yielding income investments in places like Australia, Brazil, and South Africa. Interest from foreign investors got to be so extensive in Brazil that the federal government imposed a tax on foreign investors in bonds in order to curb demand and slow the pace of the Brazilian real's appreciation. Exchange-rate issues also likely played a role in the health of the commodities markets, as mining giants BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP  ) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO  ) in Australia benefited from increased demand largely for base metals. Similarly, South African gold miners AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU  ) and Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI  ) outperformed rivals from elsewhere in the world, benefiting from strength in the South African rand currency.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    One way Yamana has kept its competitive cost advantage is through extensive sales of base-metal byproducts like copper and zinc, as both it and fellow low-cost rival Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) benefit from utilizing those secondary metals to offset the cost of their gold production. Peers Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI  ) and AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU  ) , on the other hand, face much higher costs in part because of their exposure to South Africa and its unstable labor market.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Strong Chinese data lift European markets

LONDON (MarketWatch) — European stock markets ended higher on Monday as investors welcomed upbeat data on Chinese industrial production and focused on corporate news, with shares of Lonmin PLC rallying after a well-received earnings report.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index (XX:SXXP)  gained 0.3% to close at 323.57, after posting on Friday the largest five-week point gain since the week ending Aug. 9.

Click to Play Europe's week ahead: After the ECB rate cut

Euro-zone third quarter GDP will be the key economic news in Europe next week, while all eyes will also be on Janet Yellen's Fed chair confirmation hearing.

"Today has been really quiet and from a macro perspective we're still digesting last week's strong [U.S. jobs] numbers to give us some idea about where we'll go next," said Peter Dixon, strategist at Commerzbank. "It gives some hope that the U.S. economy is on a solid footing, but equally strong data bring forward the date when the [Federal Reserve] is likely to taper."

"The earnings season [in Europe] to be fair hasn't been great and about half of the companies missed their estimates. It's been mixed, so there's no real reason why you want to push equities higher in this environment," he added.

Among notable movers in the pan-European index, shares of RSA Insurance Group PLC (UK:RSA)  slid 10.5% after the company late Friday issued a profit warning for the full year and said it had suspended the chief executive and chief financial officer of its Irish division, as it investigates issues that were identified during a routine audit. Credit Suisse cut the insurance firm to underperform from neutral following the announcement of problems with the Irish business.

Best Performing Companies To Watch For 2014

BT Group PLC (UK:BT.A)  added 0.5% after the telecom and broadband provider bought the rights to broadcast live Champions League and Europa League soccer matches for 897 million pounds ($1.4 billion). The rights are currently held by rivals British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (UK:BSY) , whose shares fell 10.9%, and ITV PLC (UK:ITV) , whose fell 1.6%. Citigroup said ITV is probably the bigger casualty of BT's rights acquisition and lowered the rating to neutral from buy. Meanwhile, Nomura cut BSkyB to reduce from buy.

TRADING STRATEGIES: NOVEMBER Terrence Horan/MarketWatch • 10 Novembers to remember
• Using interest rates to your advantage
• The best plays for November
• The play for November is risk on
• ETFs to ride the market's peaks
• Top performers' top November bets
• Trading into a trip to Europe
• See full Trading Strategies report /conga/story/2013/11/trading-strategies.html 285555

Shares of Lonmin PLC (UK:LMI)  gained 3.9% after the platinum miner said it swung to profit for the full year as it recovered from the effects of a violent strike last year.

China data

More broadly, investors were inspired to take on more risk after data over the weekend showed industrial production in China rose 10.3% in October, beating expectations and coming in higher than the 10.2% rate printed in September.

"The industrial production data so far suggest that GDP growth in [the fourth quarter] will accelerate slightly to 7.9% year-on-year from 7.8% year-on-year in [the third quarter]," analysts at Danske Bank said in a note.

"The current moderate recovery in China has primarily been driven by domestic investment demand and to some degree stronger exports. Manufacturing investments have strengthened in recent months, while there are tentative signs that growth in public infrastructure investment is easing," they added.

The optimism over the Chinese numbers was, however, partly offset by worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin to taper its asset purchases sooner than previously expected after a solid nonfarm-payrolls report on Friday. Data from the Labor Department showed 204,000 jobs were added to the economy in October, beating expectations of a 100,000 increase.

U.S. stocks traded higher on Monday, while Asian markets closed mixed.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index (UK:UKX)  rose 0.3% to 6,728.37, while France's CAC 40 index (FR:PX1)  added 0.7% to 4,290.14. Germany's DAX 30 index (DX:DAX)  picked up 0.3% to 9,107.86.

Shares of Shire (UK:SHP)  climbed 0.9% in London after the drug maker said it is buying rare-disease company ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM)  for $4.2 billion, or $50 a share. ViroPharma shares traded 26% higher in the U.S.

In Spain, shares of Grifols SA (ES:GRF)  jumped 4.5% after Novartis AG (CH:NOVN)   (NVS)  agreed to sell its blood-transfusion diagnostics unit to the Spanish firm for $1.675 billion in cash. Novartis shares rose 0.9%.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Stocks: Good news fuels markets, but rally may not last

Dow week

Click the chart for more markets data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Stocks have surged this year thanks to a slowly recovering economy and continued attention by the Federal Reserve. But there are worries about how long the big market run up will last.

Chief among the concerns is when the Fed will begin to pull back on its stimulus program. The central bank was expected to begin tapering the $85 billion-per-month bond buying program this fall, but held off amid the debt limit crisis and government shutdown.

This week, investors will be watching for clues about the coming taper when Janet Yellen testifies Thursday at her confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill.

Yellen is vice chair of the Fed and President Obama's nominee to replace Ben Bernanke, whose term as chairman expires in January. She was the favorite pick of many economists, who don't expect her leadership to be radically different from Bernanke's. She also has the support of Senate Democratic leaders.

Stocks ended last week higher, their fifth consecutive week up. Stocks surged Friday, bouncing back from losses on Thursday, thanks to a much better-than-expected jobs report.

Hot Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014

Earnings season winds down: Most major companies have already reported their third quarter earnings, but several major retailers and technology firms report this week.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) reports earnings Thursday. Last quarter, it fell short of expectations, but has focused on prices, and launched a new discount store brand.

Macy's (M, Fortune 500) reports Wednesday morning, followed by Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500) on Thursday and Nordstrom (JWN, Fortune 500) on Friday. Their earnings reports will likely provide some clues about the holiday shopping season, which the National Retail Federation expects will see 3.9% growth over last year.

Black Friday is two weeks away and Ellen Davis, NRF senior vice president, said on CNN Saturday retailers "know that consumers want good deals and they're out to give them some this Thanksgiving weekend."

Tech giant Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) reports Thursday. Cisco's most recent earnings were on par with Wall Street expectations. But it also said growth should be stronger and announced a 5% workforce cut in the coming year. The stock is up nearly 20% this year.

China could see course adjustment: The world's second-largest ec! onomy could see its first economic shifts under new President Xi Jinping this week.

A multi-day meeting of China's ruling Communist Party wraps up Tuesday. Among the policy details economists say may come out of the meeting involve the shift from relying heavily on exports to domestic consumption.

The gross domestic product reports for Japan and the eurozone will be released Thursday.

One report will reflect on Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ambitious plan to grow the Japanese economy. The second will show insight into Europe's recovery from six quarters of recession that ended earlier this year. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates in an effort to keep the economy moving.

Veterans Day: Stock and commodity markets are open on Monday, though some banks and the U.S. Treasury market are closed for the federal holiday. To top of page

Friday, November 8, 2013

Tesla plunges on outlook; A&F loses its cool

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Shares of Tesla Motors Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. dropped in premarket trade Wednesday following their quarterly results.

Decliners

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)  dropped nearly 7%. The teen retailer late Tuesday reported a 12% drop in third-quarter sales and 14% plunge in total same-store sales. Abercrombie revised its full-year guidance, now expecting per-share earnings of between $1.40 and $1.50.

Reuters Enlarge Image The Tesla Model S at the Frankfurt Motor Show

Top Safest Companies To Watch In Right Now

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA)  shares slid 12%. The electric-car company late Tuesday forecast little change in fourth-quarter adjusted earnings compared to the third quarter, which weighed on shares. The company beat estimates as it narrowed its third-quarter loss to 32 cents a share from a loss of $1.05 a share a year earlier. Read a recap of the company's third-quarter earnings call here.

Gainers Click to Play Technology overload: Randi Zuckerberg says relax

Randi Zuckerberg has written a book, "Dot Complicated," that will enlighten readers on how to disconnect themselves from their tech-consumed lives. The WSJ's Deborah Kan sits down with the sister of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

Hospira Inc. (HSP)  shares gained 7%. The company on Wednesday posted a 58% surge in third-quarter profit as revenue edged up 1.4%, with adjusted profit and sales beating expectations.

Class A shares of Zillow Inc. (Z)  rose 5%. The company, which bills itself as a real-estate and home-related marketplace, reported record revenue of $53.3 million in the third quarter, beating analyst estimates.

Top Tickers Trending

$WFM Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM)  is scheduled to report earnings after the bell Wednesday and Wall Street was recently expecting a per-share profit of 31 cents on sales of $3.04 billion. New Yorkers will be looking for more details on the company's first Brooklyn store, which is said to feature a rooftop garden.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Advisers help Twitter's new millionaires navigate bumpy seas

twitter, ipo, initial public offering, millionaires A banner with the Twitter logo hangs outside the New York Stock Exchange Bloomberg News

Twitter Inc.'s $1.82 billion initial public offering Thursday is the start of the big payoff many of the technology company's 2,300 employees have dreamed of since they joined the 7-year-old firm. But advisers recommend that these ecstatic souls prepare for a wild ride.

The ride began Thursday, with the stock surging 85% on its first day of trading, reaching $48.15 before dropping back slightly. By about midday New York time, shares of the microblogging company were up $20.28, or 78%, at $46.28. They were priced late Wednesday at $26.

The company received orders for about 30 times as many shares as it offered at the $26 IPO price, a person familiar with the matter said. About 8 million of the shares, or 11% of the total in the IPO, were allocated to retail investors, the person said, asking not to be named because the information is private. A typical retail allocation is 10% to 15%.

“If you are a Twitter employee, get ready for anything,” said Aaron Rubin, a senior wealth manager for Werba Rubin Wealth Management in San Jose, Calif. “Your wealth is going to be on a roller coaster ride for the next six months and there's very little you can do about it.”

Top 10 Small Cap Stocks To Invest In 2014

He points to what happened with the $16 billion Facebook Inc. (FB) IPO in May 2012. In that case, “there was too much hysteria” and the price fell from its $38 initial price to as low as $17.73 four months later. The stock took more than a year to recover and today trades at around $50.

Among other recent high-profile tech IPOs, Groupon Inc. (GRPN) is off 50% from its 2011 IPO price, while Zynga Inc. (ZNGA) is down about 63%.

On the other hand, there are “quiet” issuances like FireEye Inc. (FEYE), which closed up 80% at $36 on its first day of trading Sept. 20 and is now almost double its $20 initial price, Mr. Rubin said.

“It's magical,” said Sandi Bragar, director of planning at Aspiriant, a San Francisco-based independent advisory firm whose clients include Twitter employees and other Silicon Valley types whose companies have gone public. “There's nothing more gratifying from our end than helping a client through this whole process.”

Twitter's new millionaires should “plan for the worst and hope for the best,” regarding share price, which already has been driven up by interest from venture capitalists, said Robert Cheney, chief executive of Westridge Wealth Strategies in San Francisco, pointing out that the economy is “not that strong.”

Employees should diversify their wealth holdings by selling some shares when they can and investing those amounts in other assets, he said. They should have a systematic approach to moving some net worth into broader assets.

“These young ! people have a substantial net worth on paper, but their income and net worth are tied to the value of a young tech company,” said Mr. Cheney, whose firm is affiliated with First Allied Securities.

Bruce E. Brugler, managing director of the Presidio Group in San Francisco, said many times, individuals who are part of a company that goes public do not know how to handle the “sudden escalation” in their wealth and make poor decisions.

These investors also can be overly passionate about their company investment and may resist suggestions to diversify their holdings.

“Typically, people who are very closely involved with a relatively young company believe that it's the greatest investment in the world,” Mr. Brugler said. “You often have what's effectively a naive buyer with a lot of money in their hands, and a lot of salespeople, and that doesn't always work out for the investor.”

Mr. Cheney has had some initial discussions with Twitter employees and expects more prospects will pursue advice as the end of the 180-day lockup period nears and employees can sell their shares on the public market. According to Twitter's prospectus, some non-executive employees will be eligible to sell almost 10 million shares as soon as Feb. 15, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Bloomberg also said Twitter chief executive Dick Costolo has been talking to employees about managing their personal finances at the company's weekly meetings, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private.

In Thursday's offering, 70 million Twitter shares priced at $26 would raise $1.82 billion for the San Francisco-based Internet messaging service. Twitter initially intended to price shares at $17 to $20 each, but revised its estimate up to $26 on Monday.

Drew Nordlicht, managing director and partner at HighTower Advisors in San Diego, said Twitter's new millionaires need to desensitize themselves to the laws of large numbe! rs.

&#! 8220;They are probably going to see their net worth fluctuate by more than what their annual salary is, based on market movement,” said Mr. Nordlicht, whose firm works with venture capital and private-equity-backed firms that typically pursue IPOs.

Importantly, Twitter's new millionaires also need to recognize that this money is real.

“It's no longer a fictitious sum that might be worth something at some point,” and it needs to be carefully managed for the future, he said. “You need to look at it like a responsibility.”

Don Martin, adviser and founder of Mayflower Capital in Los Altos, Calif., said he has a prospect whose wife works for Twitter. If the couple becomes a client, Mr. Martin's first piece of advice to them will be to exercise all options as soon as possible and get out of Twitter stock.

“Tech stocks are highly risky compared to other types of stocks,” Mr. Martin said. “Tech stocks are usually overpriced — especially with IPOs.”

He said they already have their human capital invested with the firm and he recommends Twitter employees buy a classic, “boring,” diversified stock-and-bond portfolio.

Mr. Rubin recommends employees think carefully about how much they want invested in Twitter. His firm typically recommends selling a good bulk of the shares to diversify assets.

“We ask people, if someone is going to hand you a check today for $2 million, are you going to put it all in Twitter?” he said.

For some newly enriched employees in the San Francisco Bay area, diversification can mean moving into an even more volatile asset class for the first time: real estate.

“Because these people live in Silicon Valley and real estate is very expensive, especially for ones who are seeing liquidity for the first time, you may find that a lot of these people want to own their own house for the first time,” said Sanjeev Sardana, CEO of BluePointe Capital Management in San Mateo, Calif. R! 20;They'r! e not as sensitive to paying a premium or overbidding on a property when they have a hyper-growth stock like that, so investing in real estate does become a big concern.”

For these clients, Mr. Sardana recommends a variety of strategies, including grantor retained annuity trusts, which can minimize the tax liability for growth investments that are passed on to children, or exchange funds, which allow clients to diversify without selling their stocks.

In either case, the individual client's circumstances, including the rules of the firm they work for, dictate the strategy Mr. Sardana said.

In addition, taxes are certainly a danger point for Twitter's new millionaires.

Include a tax professional before exercising incentive stock options, because such transactions can generate “a tremendous tax bill,” Mr. Rubin said. The situation could get extremely ugly if the share price plummets.

“You could owe a ton of cash in taxes and have little to pay it with,” he said. “Do very careful tax planning.”

(Bloomberg News contributed to this report.)

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Can LeapFrog See a TurnAround With the Upcoming Holiday Season?

With shares of LeapFrog (NYSE:LF) trading around $8, is LF an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

LeapFrog designs, develops, and markets technology-based learning products and related proprietary content for children worldwide. The company offers multimedia learning platform products, including LeapPad and LeapPad2 personalized learning tablets for children ages three to nine with camera and video recorder. In addition, the company provides content titles through game cartridges, ultra eBooks, downloadable apps, and books covering subjects, such as phonics, reading, writing, and math.

LeapFrog announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013. "Despite a tough retail climate in most of the markets in which we operate, the LeapFrog team delivered another solid quarterly financial performance," said John Barbour, Chief Executive Officer. "We head into the all-important holiday season with the best product offering we have ever had.”

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

LeapFrog stock has remained in a range over the last couple of years. The stock is currently trading at lows for the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, LeapFrog is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

LF

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of LeapFrog options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

LeapFrog Options

55.77%

26%

24%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Steep

Average

January Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on LeapFrog’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for LeapFrog look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-40.32%

-58.33%

-71.43%

84.34%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

4.10%

16.10%

15.18%

16.42%

Earnings Reaction

N/A

-8.30%

-2.68%

-0.22%

LeapFrog has seen decreasing earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about LeapFrog’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has LeapFrog stock done relative to its peers, Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK), and sector?

LeapFrog

Hasbro

Mattel

Jakks Pacific

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-8.92%

45.26%

23.16%

-45.90%

4.40%

LeapFrog has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

LeapFrog designs, develops, and markets technology-based learning products for children worldwide. The company is waiting to release the best product they’ve ever offered before the holiday season hoping that it’ll help the company rise. The stock has remained in a range over the last couple of years and is currently trading at lows for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been decreasing while revenue figures have been rising, leaving investors with mixed feelings about LeapFrog’s recent earnings announcement. Relative to its peers and sector, LeapFrog has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what LeapFrog does next.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Emerging Stocks Rally as Brazil to India Signal Support

Emerging-market stocks rallied, paring the biggest weekly drop in two months, as countries from Brazil to India signaled they would act to support financial markets. Samsung Electronics Co. drove technology shares higher.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 1.1 percent to 932.76, trimming its weekly decline to 2.6 percent. Samsung Electronics, the world's largest smartphone maker, jumped 3.2 percent in South Korea. Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT), owner of Jaguar Land Rover, climbed 3.1 percent in Mumbai. India's rupee rebounded from a record low, while the Brazilian real increased the most in almost two years. Homebuilders paced gains in Sao Paulo, driving the Ibovespa to a third weekly advance.

All 10 groups in the benchmark measure for emerging markets gained today, led by technology and industrial companies. Brazil's central bank stepped up efforts to arrest the world's worst currency decline, announcing a $60 billion intervention program involving currency swaps and loans. The Reserve Bank of India said yesterday that the nation's economic and monetary policies must focus on preserving financial stability.

Central bank actions to curb currency depreciation are a "good first stage," Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $25 billion of assets as chief investment strategist at Commonfund Group in Wilton, Connecticut, said in a telephone interview today. "They can temper it."

The gauge of developing nations is trading at 9.9 times estimated earnings, below the valuation of developed markets of 13.7. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange-traded fund added 1.2 percent at $38.65. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index, a measure of options prices on the fund and expectations of price swings, slid 5.6 percent to 23.24.

Dollar Loans

Brazil's real climbed the most since September 2011. The central bank will auction $1 billion of dollar loans every Friday starting today and offer the equivalent of $500 million worth of foreign-exchange swaps each day Monday through Thursday. The program will run through Dec. 31. The Ibovespa (IBOV) jumped the most among major emerging-market indexes as Rossi Residencial SA led homebuilders higher, offsetting declines among exporters.

The Borsa Istanbul National 100 Index tumbled to the lowest level since October, extending its weekly drop to 8.5 percent. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) slid 0.3 percent, trimming its gain for the week to 0.9 percent. Benchmark stock gauges in Poland and Hungary also dropped today.

India's S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) gained 1.1 percent as Tata Motors extended a two-day rally to 6.2 percent. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., the largest power-equipment maker, soared the most since May 2009. The rupee, which fell to a record 65.56 per dollar yesterday, climbed 2.1 percent.

Stock Sale

China's stocks fell, capping the benchmark index's first weekly loss in five weeks, as financial companies slumped on concern liquidity is tightening before the end of the month. China Merchants Bank Co. (600036) slid 3.2 percent after saying it plans to raise 34.8 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) in the world's second-largest share sale this year. South Korea's Kospi Index (KOSPI) added 1.1 percent as Samsung snapped a five-day slump.

The premium investors demand to own emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries rose 0.04 percentage point to 345 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard University economist and co-author of a history of debt crises, said emerging markets are deteriorating as the U.S. recovers and may worsen as global interest rates begin to increase.

"It could get very ugly," Reinhart said today in a Bloomberg Television interview with Sara Eisen from the Federal Reserve's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "Emerging markets had a capital flow bonanza lasting several years, the golden boom years, and the probability of a banking crisis, the probability of a currency crash, the probability of a default, all increase afterward."