Monday, April 1, 2019

6 Hello April Images to Post on Social Media

What are your favorite hello April images as we get closer to the new month?

Hello April ImagesHello April Images Source: Pixabay

There’s nothing quite like the beginning of spring as the leaves begin to change, the weather warms up and all the snow that fell on us throughout the course of the winter has (hopefully) melted. Plus, April is the only month in the Western world that begins with a prank day, which means it’s time to start planning for ways to get your partners, family, friends and co-workers.

In honor of the new season and the upcoming month, we have compiled six images for you to browse through. Pick your favorite and pass it around to your friends and colleagues on your favorite social media platforms, from Facebook to Instagram and Twitter.

Check them out.


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Hello April AprilApril Source: Pixabay

 


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Hello April April ImagesApril Images Source: deviantART

 


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Hello April Hello April ImagesHello April Images Source: deviantART

 


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Hello April Hello AprilHello April Source: Flickr

 


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Hello April April imagesApril images Source: Wikipedia

 


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Hello April Hello april imagesHello april images Source: Flickr

Friday, March 29, 2019

It's Official -- Your Company Is Worth Less

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Whether we are talking about a Fortune 500 company or a middle market enterprise or a main street business, most financial analysts will say there are three fundamental forces that affect a firm&a;rsquo;s value: 1) what&a;rsquo;s happening with the market as a whole, 2) what&a;rsquo;s happening with a specific industry, and 3) what&a;rsquo;s happening with the specific company.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;In our column, we&a;rsquo;ve harped on the last two. &a;nbsp;We&a;rsquo;ve told you that you need to understand what the average company in your industry looks like and what the &a;ldquo;USDA Prime&a;rdquo; company in your industry looks like. &a;nbsp;We&a;rsquo;ve told you that you need to understand how your firm will be seen by the &a;ldquo;USDA Prime&a;rdquo; buyer -- there are eight disciplines within a business that will be examined during due diligence.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Turning to the marketplace as a whole, a while back, we talked about a valuation market cycle that affects the middle market. &a;nbsp;And, we said that valuations would likely peak and then turn in 2018. Well, it appears that this might have started.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;As a matter of reference, according to one data provider, middle market firms being purchased by private equity funds over the past 15 or so years have seen these average multiples:&l;/span&g;

&l;div class=&q;table-wrapper&q;&g;&l;table&g;&l;tbody&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Revenue&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;EBITDA Multiple&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;$10 to $25 million&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;5.6X&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;$25 to $50 million&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;6.3X&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;$50 to $100 million&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;7.2X&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;$100 to $250 million&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;td&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;8.0X&l;/span&g;&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;/tbody&g;&l;/table&g;&l;/div&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;

As an aside, we&a;rsquo;ve suggested to you that one way to bump your own multiple was to acquire another firm. &a;nbsp;For example, your $20 million revenue company might achieve a multiple of 5.6 times EBITDA. Acquire another firm with the same revenue for the same multiple. &a;nbsp;The combined business of $40 million revenue will be valued at 6.3 times EBITDA -- expanding the multiple of both your unit and the acquired unit.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Back on point . . . &l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Over the past few years, valuation multiples moved up to significant premiums to those mentioned above. &a;nbsp;As it seems with the publicly traded stock market, people think that it is simply going to continue. After all, stocks go to the moon don&a;rsquo;t they? &a;nbsp;(Check out NVDA.) And, when the inevitable correction comes, people get pushed out of shape . . . and the talking heads on the various television networks stir up the fear and (mess) with your emotions.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;As was mentioned above, there is a multi-year valuation cycle with middle market firms and it appeared that 2018 would be a turning point. &a;nbsp;Well, the data is in and it appears that valuation multiples have started to break down. From 2017 to 2018, the average multiple of EBITDA paid for $10 to $25 million revenue firms dropped by a whopping 0.5X. &a;nbsp;That&a;rsquo;s just about a 10 percent decline in prices paid. And, for this range, the multiple is only slightly above its 15-year average. During the same period, firms with revenues of $25 to $100 million held their own. &a;nbsp;But, firms with revenues over $100 million also saw a contraction -- approximately 0.3X EBITDA.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;The year 2019 will be interesting to watch to see whether the stutter in 2018 was just an interim correction or is indeed breaking down as part of this long-term cycle. &a;nbsp;Whichever it is, you have the power to counteract it via actions within your firm -- those eight disciplines. You must decide on whether you are going to sell a USDA Prime company or a USDA Select company. &a;nbsp;Be honest with yourself. And, whatever you decide, as Coach Lombardi said, it can&a;rsquo;t be a sometime thing . . . it has to be an all-of-the-time thing. Bo says Just Do It!&l;/span&g;

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

12 Leading Investors Explain Why They're Funding Sextech

&l;p&g;&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-62&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/andreabarrica/files/2019/03/forbes_investors08-1200x800.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;800&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; 12 Investors Explain Why They&s;re Funding Sextech

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;For some, it&a;rsquo;s personal. For others, it&a;rsquo;s political. But the one motivation that drives nearly every sextech VC is the exploding market in sexual wellness.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Much of the coverage of sextech has focused on the founders and their products. But given the funding issues faced by sextech companies, a more important issue might be the motivation of the investors themselves.&l;span class=&q;tweet_icon&q;&g;&l;/span&g; Because whether its vibrator design or contraceptive delivery or educational platforms, no sextech company can change the world without funding.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Some sextech pioneers, like &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.makelovenotporn.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;MakeLoveNotPorn&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;rsquo;s Cindy Gallop, are lucky enough to have&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/21/sex-the-final-frontier-cindy-gallop-raises-2m-from-mysterious-investor-for-social-sex-tech/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;a single investor&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; who believes in &a;mdash; and helps fund &a;mdash; her company. For sextech companies raising outside funding, it&a;rsquo;s still a big deal to be backed by major VC funds. (Recently, app-based audio erotica platform &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.dipseastories.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Dipsea&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; raised $5.5M in a competitive funding round, a hopeful harbinger of what we&a;rsquo;ll start to see in this space.) &a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;So I asked nearly a dozen prominent investors in sextech &a;mdash; some of whom have invested in &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.o.school/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;O.school&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;,* and others who have invested in companies like &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://getmaude.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Maude&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://unboundbabes.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Unbound&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.elvie.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Elvie&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, and &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.juiceboxit.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Juicebox&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; &a;mdash; the central question: Why are you investing in sextech?&l;span class=&q;tweet_icon&q;&g;&l;/span&g; &l;/span&g;

&l;b&g;&a;lsquo;Overlooked&a;rsquo; and &a;lsquo;Ignored&a;rsquo;&l;/b&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Many cited the promise of a surprisingly untapped market &a;mdash; women.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;You can tell that this market is growing by the unicorn status of companies like Rent the Runway and Glossier,&a;rdquo; venture capital investor Monique Woodard told me. &a;ldquo;But so far women&a;rsquo;s health, women&a;rsquo;s sexuality, and women&a;rsquo;s products have been ignored. Given the demographic shifts that are underway right now, a women&a;rsquo;s health company that also has a lens into women of color will be even more important.&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;img class=&q;wp-image-69 size-full&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/andreabarrica/files/2019/03/Untitled-drawing-1.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;720&q; data-width=&q;960&q;&g; &q;Given the demographic shifts that are underway right now, a women&a;rsquo;s health company that also has a lens into women of color will be even more important.&q; &a;mdash; Monique Woodard

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;There is a huge business opportunity in sextech,&a;rdquo; says Christie Pitts, partner at &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://backstagecapital.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Backstage Capital&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, a VC fund dedicated to funding people of color, women, and other &a;ldquo;underestimated&a;rdquo; founders. &a;ldquo;Women control nearly all of the purchasing decisions and the majority of the wealth in the US, yet have been overlooked when it comes to products and solutions dedicated to their pleasure.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Lina Wenner, principal at &l;/span&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.firstminute.capital/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;firstminute Capital&l;/a&g;,&a;nbsp;&l;/span&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;a $100M UK-based seed fund backed by 30 unicorn founders, sees that trend only growing.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;We&a;rsquo;re particularly excited by the younger, more sexually liberated Gen Z gaining share of wallet and opening up the conversation around ,&a;rdquo; she says. &a;ldquo;Over the next few years, we&a;rsquo;ll continue to see an increasing democratization and growing social acceptance of &a;mdash; particularly female&a;nbsp;&a;mdash; sexual pleasure. If we can speed this up by investing into the right teams, that would be a great outcome for us.&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;b&g;&a;lsquo;A Huge Part of Our Lives&a;rsquo;&l;/b&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;The current cultural climate has created a window to shake up this moth-eaten market with new, innovative thinking and design,&a;rdquo; says &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.xfactor.ventures/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;XFactor Ventures&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; partner Aubrie Pagano, pointing me to a &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://medium.com/@aubriepagano/lets-talk-about-sex-ual-wellness-baby-fc4dec327163&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Medium post&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; she wrote upon backing the sexual wellness company, Maude, in 2018. The real excitement for her? 10% YOY growth in a market that&a;rsquo;s barely explored anyone but young cis males.&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Pagano isn&a;rsquo;t the only one drawn in by the potential to remake a long-stagnant industry. Changes in technology have made it easier for products to get to prototype, and crowdfunding is allowing founders with a little money and a strong idea to get to market. &l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;Sex toys in general are really interesting,&a;rdquo; says Cyan Banister, an angel investor and partner in &l;a href=&q;https://foundersfund.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Founders Fund&l;/a&g;. &a;ldquo;There are lots of people innovating on form and function of these products, especially women entrepreneurs. Previous to companies like &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.jimmyjane.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;JimmyJane&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, there weren&s;t a lot of products that were geared towards innovation of materials. &a;hellip; And, it&a;rsquo;s becoming less of an issue. The fact that you can get a Trojan finger vibrator at Walgreens or Walmart means that it&a;rsquo;s becoming a little less stigmatized, which makes me very hopeful for the future.&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;img class=&q;wp-image-65 size-full&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/andreabarrica/files/2019/03/Elomida-Visviki-.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;600&q; data-width=&q;900&q;&g; &q;&a;nbsp;such a huge, important part of our life. We should embrace it, and it has to be fun.&a;rdquo; - Elomida Visviki&l;b&g;&s;A Moral Imperative&s;&l;/b&g;

Elomida Visviki and husband Lars Rasmussen, co-founder of the company that became Google Maps, find the reticence to discuss sex in the US &a;mdash; and by extension Silicon Valley &a;mdash; unnerving, and a bit silly. (During their first pitch meeting with me, Visviki breastfed their child.)

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;It&a;rsquo;s been an undervalued, &a;lsquo;shady&a;rsquo; category,&a;rdquo; says Visviki, who grew up in Greece, &a;ldquo;but it&a;rsquo;s such a huge, important part of our life. We should embrace it, and it has to be fun.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;When I was in college I volunteered at the local kindergarten, and was the kids&a;rsquo; favorite subject,&a;rdquo; says Rasmussen, who was raised in Denmark. &a;ldquo;Now I live in a country that if you suggested that kids learn about sex and pleasure in kindergarten, it would not be OK. I want to be part of changing that. &a;hellip; Despite the hangups about sex, everyone loves it and everyone is interested. It&a;rsquo;s just a matter of time before someone breaks through.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Gerda Larsson, co-founder and managing director at &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;http://www.thecaseforher.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;The Case for Her&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, a European fund which invests in women&a;rsquo;s health, says she sees huge opportunities in markets like sex education and fertility. But to truly realize that potential, investors simultaneously tackle stigma. &l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;Why can I see Viagra ads everywhere,&a;rdquo; she asks, &a;ldquo;but you&s;re not allowed to advertise sexual products for women? Why is my sexuality shamed and framed as unnatural?&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Larsson says she invests in sextech as a strategy to close the gender gap &a;mdash; The Case for Her launched its Pleasure Portfolio in 2018: &l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;We started investing in sextech after identifying it as one of the solutions that could tackle the global taboo surrounding sex and female sexual pleasure. Tech gives people the opportunity to explore, nurture and innovate around pleasure and what that means to you.&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-75&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/andreabarrica/files/2019/03/Lina-Wenner--1200x960.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;960&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; &q;Over the next few years, we&a;rsquo;ll continue to see an increasing democratization and growing social acceptance of &a;mdash; particularly female &a;mdash; sexual pleasure.&q; -Lina Wenner

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;Sexuality is part of wellness,&a;rdquo; says angel investor Laura Behrens Wu. &a;ldquo;My investment in sextech shouldn&a;rsquo;t be viewed any differently than investments in other types of healthcare , &a;nbsp;like &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.headspace.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Headspace&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; or &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://www.calm.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Calm&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g; &a;nbsp;&a;mdash; and that&a;rsquo;s a huge, established market. Investors who insist on segmenting out one aspect of our bodies, just because it makes some people uncomfortable, may regret it in five years.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Courtney Broadus, a member of &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;http://www.broadway-angels.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Broadway Angels&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, &l;/span&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;an all-female investment group world-class angel investors, &l;/span&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;sees investment in sextech as a moral imperative. &a;ldquo;Youth, teens and beyond have access to scientific information about consent and healthy, safe and enjoyable sex.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;Sexual health and wellness are still taboo in so much of our culture,&a;rdquo; says Alison Hartman, Ph.D, an angel investor in New Orleans. &a;ldquo;I love that Juicebox democratizes access to experts on sex and relationships.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

For Jake Gibson, an angel investor and co-founder of NerdWallet, the educational aspect of sextech can offer an antidote the bullying, misinformation and shame that now seems to saturate online life.

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;When the internet started, it was a place for all freaks and geeks,&a;rdquo; he told me. &a;ldquo;As the internet grew and evolved, it has gotten toxic, exactly like the places you had to run away from before. That&a;rsquo;s why I invested in O.school &a;mdash; because safe places are important.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;Pioneering investors have begun the process, but the market is imbalanced. Once institutional investors come in, we may finally unlock the sector&a;rsquo;s true potential. &l;/span&g;

&l;b&g;&a;lsquo;Entrepreneurs Are Standing Ready&a;rsquo;&l;/b&g;

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-64&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/andreabarrica/files/2019/03/Cyan-Banister.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;562&q; data-width=&q;1000&q;&g; &q;&l;span&g;The fact that you can get a Trojan finger vibrator at Walgreens or Walmart means that it&a;rsquo;s becoming a little less stigmatized, which makes me very hopeful for the future&l;/span&g;.&q; - Cyan Banister

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;It&a;rsquo;s a growing industry and the entrepreneurs are standing ready to go,&a;rdquo; says Larsson. &a;ldquo;Now we need more investors and pioneers from the finance sector to take on the subject and start realizing the potential both from the rights perspective and as an investment case.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;Sextech is underserved because a lot of people that do not see the exit opportunities, and they don&a;rsquo;t understand the space&a;nbsp;&a;mdash; or they have vice clauses in their LP agreements that keep them from investing in the space,&a;rdquo; says Banister. &a;ldquo;I try to identify companies that I believe that aren&a;rsquo;t so &a;ldquo;risky&a;rdquo; they can&a;rsquo;t fit, but can be mainstream &a;mdash; but also moving the needle to what people think can be a VC-type investment. It&a;rsquo;s the mission&l;em&g; and&l;/em&g; the outsize return opportunity. &l;/span&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;

&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;&a;ldquo;I think it&s;s time we provide something relevant to the market,&a;rdquo; says Sophia Bendz, an angel investor and &l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/05/sophia-bendz/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;partner at Atomico&l;/span&g;&l;/a&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;, one of the most respected institutional VC funds in Europe, with a $765M fourth fund. &a;ldquo;I like the idea of a sextech company being founded by women and targeting the needs of women in a more ambitious way and not having someone else dictating the rules &a;hellip; I believe it has a huge potential.&a;rdquo; &l;/span&g;

&l;i&g;&l;span style=&q;font-weight: 400&q;&g;*Disclosure: Banister, Behrens Wu, Bendz, Broadus, Gibson, Pitts, Rasmussen, Visviki, Wenner and Woodard have all been invested in O.school, either personally or through their funds.&l;/span&g;&l;/i&g;&l;/p&g;

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Rally in midcaps at early stage of uptrend, 30% upside possible: ICICI Securities


ICICI Securities

The sharp rally over the past couple of weeks has taken many by surprise. Investors have been left wondering if the rally has further legs or whether this should be viewed as an exit opportunity, especially in the beaten down midcap and smallcap space?

We do not foresee midcap and smallcap indices to challenge February lows as the current rally is at the early stage of a major uptrend. We recommend investors to start accumulating quality midcap stocks to ride the next leg of a major up move (around 30 percent from hereon). We expect bouts of volatility to persist in the run-up to the general election 2019 that should be capitalised as an incremental buying opportunity.

We focus on examining the market internals of the ongoing rally in midcap and small-cap stocks, drawing inferences from prevailing time cycles to ascertain the future course for the rest of 2019. Our thesis is corroborated by following findings:

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• Since its inception in 2003, all three major corrections (2008, 2011 and 2015) in Nifty Midcap index, have matured in 14 months, followed by average minimum returns of 40 percent, in the following year. In the previous three instances, Nifty midcap index had rallied 169 percent, 41 percent and 48 percent on completion of the 14-month cycle. Although the Nifty Midcap index has already rallied 12 percent from February 2019 low (16,045), at least another 30 percent rally is ahead of us.

Image218032019

• Noteworthy simultaneous improvement in twin breadth indicators, confirm maturity of 14-month down cycle, similar to the past three instances
a) percentage of stocks above 200-DMA reversing above 50, after falling below 20

b) advance-decline summation index reversing to positive zone after recording extreme bearish set-up

Here are five midcap picks that could return more than 20%:

Image118032019

Ipca Laboratories | Target: Rs 1,080 | Stop loss: Rs 758

> Breakout from a five-year consolidation signals a structural turnaround
> A faster retracement as 14 quarters decline (Rs 906-400) is completely retraced in just six quarters

> We expect the stock to continue its current up move and test levels of Rs 1,090 as it is the 138.6 percent external retracement of the entire previous decline (Rs 907 to Rs 400)

Kansai Nerolac Paints | Target: Rs 550 | Stop loss: Rs 405

> At the cusp of a falling channel breakout containing entire decline since high of Dec'17 (Rs 614)
> A slower retracement as the stock has already taken 14 months to retrace just 80 percent of the previous 12 months' up move from Rs 319 to Rs 614

> The favourable risk-reward set-up offers a fresh entry opportunity for upside toward Rs 560 as it is 80 percent retracement of the entire decline (Rs 614 to Rs 343)

NBCC India | Target: Rs 80 | Stop loss: Rs 56

> Double bottom breakout aided stock to resolve out of long-term falling trendline to longest pullback since November 2017 along with a faster retracement as six weeks decline (Rs 63-47) has been completely retraced in four weeks

> We expect the stock to resolve higher towards August 2018 high Rs 80 as it is the 61.8 percent retracement of the last decline (Rs 109 to Rs 47)

Bank of India | Target: Rs 110 | Stop loss: Rs 83

> The stock has been forming a base at key support zone of Rs 80 as on multiple occasions it respected May 2005 lows (Rs 80)
> Monthly RSI recorded a bullish crossover after witnessing a positive divergence

> We expect the stock to continue its current up move and test Rs 110 as it the high of January 2019 and 80 percent retirement of the previous major decline (Rs 119 to Rs 73)

Lux Industries | Target: Rs 1,560 | Stop loss: Rs 1,152

> Breakout from a major falling channel contains the entire corrective decline
> The stock in March rebounded from the major support area of Rs 1,100 as it is the major trendline support joining the lows of CY2016 (Rs 576) and CY2017 (Rs 650)

> The current improvement in price structure signals resumption of up move and open upside towards Rs 1,570 as it is 50 percent retracement of the entire decline (Rs 2,094-1,055).

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. First Published on Mar 18, 2019 01:53 pm

Friday, March 22, 2019

Hot Safest Stocks To Own For 2019

tags:NKSH,LXFT,ADSK, Currencies, commodities, different stock sectors, and bonds...   For the last few days, they've been all over the place.   Investors and traders are digesting the news. They're trying to figure out what "President Trump" means for the world. They're trying to figure out where their money is safest... and where they'll make the biggest profits.   Today, we'll look at a few areas of the market that are likely to do well under Trump...   I'll start with infrastructure. Trump plans to spend big to improve things like roads and bridges in the U.S. He has experience with construction. And he'll likely follow through on his promises here.   That bodes well for companies that produce building materials like stone, gravel, steel, and copper. Just look at the price action of companies like Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Vulcan Materials (VMC), U.S. Steel (X), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) since the election. They've all shot higher.

Hot Safest Stocks To Own For 2019: National Bankshares, Inc.(NKSH)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    National Bankshares (NASDAQ:NKSH) and Bancorp (NASDAQ:TBBK) are both small-cap finance companies, but which is the better stock? We will contrast the two companies based on the strength of their valuation, risk, dividends, analyst recommendations, earnings, institutional ownership and profitability.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    BidaskClub cut shares of National Bankshares (NASDAQ:NKSH) from a sell rating to a strong sell rating in a research note published on Thursday morning.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Farmers Capital Bank (NASDAQ: NKSH) and National Bankshares (NASDAQ:NKSH) are both small-cap finance companies, but which is the better stock? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their valuation, earnings, dividends, risk, profitability, analyst recommendations and institutional ownership.

Hot Safest Stocks To Own For 2019: Luxoft Holding, Inc.(LXFT)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Formula Growth Ltd. bought a new position in Luxoft Holding Inc (NYSE:LXFT) in the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm bought 52,000 shares of the software maker’s stock, valued at approximately $1,916,000. Formula Growth Ltd. owned about 0.15% of Luxoft at the end of the most recent reporting period.

  • [By Steve Symington]

    Luxoft Holding (NYSE:LXFT) announced fiscal third-quarter 2019 results on Wednesday, including a small year-over-year sales decline as the company pushes forward with its strategic customer-diversification initiatives. Of course, Luxoft's performance this quarter was overshadowed by its impending acquisition by IT services and solutions leader DXC Technology (NYSE:DXC) -- a $2 billion deal that sent Luxoft stock skyrocketing 80% when it was announced early last month.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Barings LLC lifted its stake in shares of Luxoft Holding Inc (NYSE:LXFT) by 125.1% in the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 348,398 shares of the software maker’s stock after buying an additional 193,657 shares during the quarter. Barings LLC owned about 1.03% of Luxoft worth $14,267,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Luxoft Holding, Inc. (NYSE: LXFT) was down, falling around 26 percent to $32.15. Luxoft posted in-line Q4 earnings, but issued weak forecast for the current quarter.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Luxoft (NYSE:LXFT) had its target price hoisted by Cantor Fitzgerald from $46.00 to $52.00 in a research report report published on Wednesday morning. They currently have an overweight rating on the software maker’s stock.

Hot Safest Stocks To Own For 2019: Autodesk, Inc.(ADSK)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Lange]

    The S&P 500 stock posting the largest daily percentage gain ahead of the close was Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) which traded up about 15% at $156.69. The stock's 52-week range is $101.55 to $157.78. Volume was about 8 million compared to the daily average volume of 1.9 million.

  • [By Motley Fool Transcription]

    Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)Q4 Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 28, 2019, 4:00 p.m. ET

    Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

    Operator

  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) was reiterated as Buy and the price target was raised to $184 at Argus.

    Baxter International Inc. (NYSE: BAX) was reiterated as Overweight and the price target was raised to $83 from $80 at Morgan Stanley.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Titan among 50 stocks to hit new 52-week high on BSE

Led by banking and IT stocks, benchmark indices continue their surge in afternoon trade. As many as 50 stocks have hit new 52-week high on BSE.

Banking stocks gained the most, led by State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank.

ICICI Bank from the private banking space jumped 2 percent followed by HDFC Bank, Bata India, INOX Leisure, Titan Company, DCB Bank, Godfrey Philips, Info Edge, UPL, IDFC First Bank, Tube Investments and Cantabil Retail among others.

The stocks which moved the most with respect to volumes included CRISIL, which was trading with volumes of 83,805 shares, compared to its five day average of 1,158 shares, an increase of 7,137.05 percent. The stock saw spurt in volume by more than 52.06 times.

related news Bharti Airtel top loser on Sensex post Jefferies downgrade D-Street Buzz: PSU banks surge led by SBI, PNB; Bharti Airtel falls, FMCG drags HCC gains 8% on report of PE firm buying arbitration exposure

UPL was trading with volumes of 2,942,946 shares, compared to its five day average of 66,878 shares, an increase of 4,300.46 percent and saw spurt in volume by more than 36.73 times. The other stock was Adani Transmission, which was trading with volumes of 191,932 shares, compared to its five day average of 13,979 shares, an increase of 1,273.02 percent. It witnessed spurt in volume by more than 10.56 times.

Jubilant Life Sciences was trading with volumes of 493,785 shares, compared to its five day average of 75,156 shares, an increase of 557.02 percent and saw spurt in volume by more than 3.92 times. PNB Housing Finance was trading with volumes of 120,701 shares, compared to its five day average of 18,386 shares, an increase of 556.48 percent. The stock saw spurt in volume by more than 6.06 times. First Published on Mar 15, 2019 03:40 pm

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Apple (AAPL) Stock Up 8% Over the Last Week: Time to Buy?

Apple (AAPL ) shares jumped over 1.1% Thursday on the back of a continued wave of positive news, including a Bank of America (BAC ) upgrade, bullish Cowen coverage, services strength, and much more. This begs the question: is now the time to buy Apple stock?

Cowen Positivity

Cowen initiated coverage of AAPL stock with an “outperform” rating and a $220 price target. This marked 21% upside to Apple’s closing price of $181.71 per share on Wednesday. Analysts cited services growth and the iPhone’s ability to serve “as an annuity,” among other reasons. “We view the Services business as an investable long-term theme as EPS contributions can double to $6 by fiscal year 2021, and increasing recurring revenues should drive a higher multiple,” analyst Krish Sankar wrote in a note to clients.

Looking ahead, Cowen predicts that Apple will be able to more effectively monetize its install base, which Apple said hit 1.3 billion globally last quarter. Cowen thinks that Apple will be able charge “for value added options (possibly including Siri) down the road.”

WWDC

Meanwhile, Apple on Thursday announced that it is set to host its now annual Worldwide Developers Conference in early June. The iPhone giant normally uses the week-long conference to show off its latest software. This time around the company is projected to unveil iOS13 for the iPhone and the iPad. Apple is also expected to reveal macOS 10.15, tvOS 13, and watchOS 6.

More Analyst Positivity

Moving on, Morgan Stanley (MS ) analyst Katy Huberty said the firm sees signs that iPhone sales in China could be headed toward stabilization. The analyst noted that Apple gained market share of the installed smartphone base in the world’s second-largest economy in January and February, after a decline in December.

The Morgan Stanley analyst also reiterated her $197 stock price target and “overweight” rating. “Second, February was the first month in half a year that our Asia team didn't revise iPhone builds lower..., implying the most significant supply chain cuts are likely behind us,” Huberty wrote in a note to clients.

Investors should also note that Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan upgraded Apple stock from “neutral” to “buy” on Monday, citing pullback-based opportunities and more. Plus, the analyst upped Apple’s 12-month price target from $180 a share to $210 per share.

 

 

Overview

AAPL stock had popped 1.10% through late-afternoon trading Thursday to hit $183.69 a share. This still represented a roughly 21% downturn from Apple’s 52-week high of $233.47 per share. And, as we mentioned at the top, shares of Apple have popped roughly 8% during the last week, including Thursday’s gains.

Apple stock plummeted to end 2018 and fell even further earlier this year on the back of slowing iPhone growth and Chinese-based worries. However, CEO Tim Cook’s company is set to expand beyond its core business.

Apple and Goldman Sachs (GS ) are reportedly set to offer a credit card that pairs with an iPhone app that aims to help users manage their money. The move is part of Apple’s larger financial tech ambitions that include Apple Pay and could end up growing as Square (SQ ) , PayPal (PYPL ) , and others try to shake up the credit card and banking industry.

Apple is also set to introduce its streaming TV service in 2019. The company is said to have spent over $1 billion on original content in order to compete against Netflix (NFLX ) , Amazon (AMZN ) , Disney (DIS ) , AT&T (T ) , and others. Plus, Cook is committed to expanding his company’s Watch-style health offerings, which he thinks will play a valuable role down the road.

Outlook & Earnings Trends

Looking ahead, Apple’s Q2 fiscal 2019 revenue is projected to sink 5.8% to reach $57.60 billion, based on our current Zacks Consensus Estimate. Last quarter, overall revenue fell 4.5%, driven by a 15% drop off in iPhone sales. Q2 iPhone revenue is projected to tumble roughly 20% from $38.03 billion in the year-ago period to $30.57 billion, based on our current NFM estimate.

Jumping further ahead, Apple’s full-year 2019 revenue is expected to dip 4.2%. Investors should also note that the company’s fiscal 2020 revenue is projected to pop 3.1% above our 2019 estimate, which would still come in below 2018’s $265.60 billion.

Meanwhile, at the bottom end of the income statement, Apple’s adjusted Q2 earnings are projected to fall 12.8%. On top of that, AAPL’s full-year 2019 EPS figure is expected to dip 4.4%. The company’s adjusted 2020 earnings are projected to climb nearly 12% above our 2019 estimate. But Apple’s earnings estimate revision activity has trended in the wrong direction.

 

 

Bottom Line

Apple is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and clearly faces some tough times ahead. With that said, Apple is one of the largest companies in the world, with a ton of cash on hand and also pays a divided. These are some of the reasons that Cowen analysts view Apple somewhat like a safe bond at the moment.

Let’s not forget that Apple stock is trading at 15X forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimates. This marks a discount compared to the S&P 500’s 16.7X and its own three-year high of 19.7X—it also hovers just above its three-year median of 14.4X.

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Friday, March 15, 2019

As U.S. Market Heats Up, These Marijuana Stocks are Cashing In

When it comes to legal weed, Canada certainly has the first-mover advantage … but I’m seeing more opportunity here in the United States for marijuana stocks. Having passed full legalization last fall, Canada is projected to be a $5.9 billion market for legal cannabis by 2022. That’s about where the U.S. market was in 2015. And that was when only four states, plus D.C., had full legalization.

Now we’re up to 11 states when you include Alaska. (And many more allow medicinal use.) By 2017, the U.S. legal marijuana market had exploded 57.4% to reach $8.5 billion.

To put that figure in its proper perspective, the $8.5 billion spent buying legal pot was more money than Americans spent on ice cream!

By 2018, we were at $10.4 billion. And according to Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics, we’ll easily keep up that pace through 2022 — when U.S. spending will reach $22.2 billion.

That’ll be nearly four times the size of Canada’s marijuana market.

Marijuana Legalization Is on the Move

There’s a huge potential catalyst on the horizon for marijuana stocks, in the form of the STATES Act.

STATES is short for Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States. The Act is a bipartisan bill put together by Senators Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The legislation was introduced last June. If passed, it would amend the Controlled Substances Act.

This is big because the federal prohibition would be eliminated in states that legalize marijuana. As long as residents follow their state’s laws on marijuana, the federal government would not be able to intervene.

The odds of the bill getting passed this year are very high. It would make it even easier for more states to legalize marijuana. More importantly, it would be the first major step to federal legalization … and that’s when the opportunity opens up all the way.


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‘Merger Fever’ Starting to Spread

Harvest Health & Recreation (OTCMKTS:HRVSF) has picked up on the trend of already increasing sales and the potential for explosive growth. The Arizona-based cannabis grower and retailer went public on the Canadian Securities Exchange last November — and is also trading on the OTC Markets in the United States under the symbol HRVSF.

From its home base in Phoenix, Harvest Health has already spread to eight other states (within just six years). And on Monday, it announced a merger with Verano Holdings, in which the combined company will own licenses for up to 200 facilities across 16 states.

The buyout comes with a steep price tag: $850 million (U.S. dollars). That’s the biggest marijuana merger since the $835 million deal between iAnthus Capital (OTCMKTS:ITHUF) and MPX Bioceuticals in October.

Taken together, that’s $1.5 billion in just two corporate mergers. You think they don’t see opportunity?

Harvest may have inked the bigger deal, but I actually prefer iAnthus as an investment.

Ianthus owns and operates cannabis cultivators, processors, and dispensaries in the United States. Now that it has merged with MPX, it has operations in 11 states, more than 60 retail locations, and over 500,000 square feet of cultivation and processing space.

I saw huge upside potential in iAnthus going back to last year. It’s up nearly 30% just in 2019 alone, and management said this will be a “transformative year” for the company. I couldn’t agree more. As the integration of iAnthus and MPX progresses, it will lead to impressive financials as the U.S. opportunity continues to grow.

Based on 2020 revenue expectations of $336 million, iAnthus trades with an Enterprise Value/Revenue ratio of 1.15. This is the lowest of all the major U.S. marijuana stocks. Even more impressive is that iAnthus is expected to be one of the first companies in the industry to turn a meaningful profit.

Based on 2020 earnings estimates, ITHUF stock trades with a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.9. With the kind of growth prospects I’ve outlined here, that makes iAnthus a phenomenal bargain.

Matthew McCall is the founder and president of Penn Financial Group, an investment advisory firm, as well as the editor of Investment Opportunities and Early Stage Investor. He has dedicated his career to getting investors into the world’s biggest, most revolutionary trends BEFORE anyone else. The power of being “first” gave Matt’s readers the chance to bank +2,438% in Stamps.com (STMP), +1,523% in Ulta Beauty (ULTA), +1,044% in Tesla (TSLA), +611% in Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (LNGLY), +324% in Bitcoin Services (BTSC), just to name a few. If you’re interested in making triple-digit gains from the world’s biggest investment trends BEFORE anyone else, click here to learn more about Matt McCall and his investments s

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Oil-Dri Co. of America to Issue Quarterly Dividend of $0.24 (ODC)

Oil-Dri Co. of America (NYSE:ODC) declared a quarterly dividend on Wednesday, March 13th, Wall Street Journal reports. Shareholders of record on Friday, May 17th will be given a dividend of 0.24 per share by the specialty chemicals company on Friday, May 31st. This represents a $0.96 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 3.32%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, May 16th.

Oil-Dri Co. of America has increased its dividend payment by an average of 4.7% per year over the last three years and has raised its dividend annually for the last 16 consecutive years.

Get Oil-Dri Co. of America alerts:

Oil-Dri Co. of America stock opened at $28.91 on Thursday. The company has a quick ratio of 1.67, a current ratio of 2.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02. The stock has a market cap of $211.24 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.48 and a beta of 0.96. Oil-Dri Co. of America has a 52-week low of $24.25 and a 52-week high of $46.73.

Oil-Dri Co. of America (NYSE:ODC) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 11th. The specialty chemicals company reported $0.30 earnings per share for the quarter. The company had revenue of $69.88 million during the quarter. Oil-Dri Co. of America had a net margin of 3.56% and a return on equity of 7.22%.

In related news, Director Allan H. Selig purchased 1,000 shares of Oil-Dri Co. of America stock in a transaction dated Monday, December 17th. The stock was bought at an average cost of $25.90 per share, with a total value of $25,900.00. Following the purchase, the director now owns 38,000 shares in the company, valued at approximately $984,200. The acquisition was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this link. Corporate insiders own 9.04% of the company’s stock.

A hedge fund recently raised its stake in Oil-Dri Co. of America stock. Geode Capital Management LLC increased its holdings in Oil-Dri Co. of America (NYSE:ODC) by 5.3% during the fourth quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 42,678 shares of the specialty chemicals company’s stock after purchasing an additional 2,164 shares during the quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC owned 0.57% of Oil-Dri Co. of America worth $1,130,000 at the end of the most recent quarter. Institutional investors own 52.49% of the company’s stock.

Separately, ValuEngine lowered shares of Oil-Dri Co. of America from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Tuesday, January 15th.

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About Oil-Dri Co. of America

Oil-Dri Corporation of America develops, manufactures, and markets sorbent products in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Retail and Wholesale Products Group, and Business to Business Products Group. The company provides agricultural and horticultural products, including mineral-based absorbent products, which serve as chemical carriers, drying agents, and growing media under the Agsorb, Verge, Flo-Fre, and Terra-Green brand names.

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Dividend History for Oil-Dri Co. of America (NYSE:ODC)

Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Clearwater Paper Corp  (NYSE:CLW)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallMarch 12, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Clearwater Paper Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded today, March 12, 2019.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Robin Yim, Vice President, Investor Relations of Clearwater Paper. Please go ahead.

Robin S. Yim -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2018 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Linda Massman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Hertz, Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2018 were released shortly after today's market close. Posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com, you will find both the earnings press release and the presentation of supplemental information, including outlook slides providing the Company's current expectations and estimates.

Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release or in the supplemental materials provided on our website.

I would like to remind you that during this conference call, we will be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are subject to change, and actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include those risks and uncertainties described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and our quarterly filings on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements are made only as of this date, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

Linda Massman will begin today's call with the highlights of 2018, followed by the fourth quarter financial results from John Hertz. Then, Linda will conclude our prepared remarks with an overview of the business environment, an update on our strategic projects and our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2019. After that, we'll open the call for the question-and-answer session.

Now, I will turn the call over to Linda.

Linda K. Massman -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Robin. Hello everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Let me start with an overview of 2018. Our results were largely driven by the strength and execution of our pulp and paperboard business, strong demand which led to record production and shipments, and hard work of our dedicated and innovative teams. For the year, we generated $1.7 billion in revenues, flat versus 2017 and $177 million of adjusted EBITDA, down 7% from 2017.

From a macro perspective, Clearwater Paper operates in an incredibly dynamic environment that is undergoing tremendous change. And as we've said over the past months, 2018 was a challenging year for the tissue side of the business and the overall industry. However, we made progress on the strategic priorities we established for 2018. Some of our key accomplishments include implementing a regional operating model in our consumer products business, which is beginning to produce results by taking millions of miles off the road and reducing external warehousing costs. While we are in the early stages, the team is making great progress in improving CPD margins.

Second, we accelerated the start-up of our new converting lines in Shelby, North Carolina, which has also contributed to taking additional miles off the road and reducing transportation costs. Third, we completed the sale of recycled tissue mill in Ladysmith, Wisconsin, which allows us to focus on our strategy of producing premium and ultra-quality tissue for the retail market.

And fourth, we continued to work on realizing the full benefits of our continuous pulp digester at our Lewiston mill. While we anticipate some headwinds to continue in 2019, which we'll discuss later on the call, we believe our strategic investments and the improvements in our operations position us for future growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Regarding our tissue business, as you saw from our release, we took a $195 million non-cash impairment charge involving the write-off of goodwill related to our acquisition of Cellu Tissue in 2010. This impairment charge is a result of an annual evaluation that took into account our projections of lowering price for certain tissue products, lower converted case sales volumes, a higher mix of parent roll sales, and increased transportation and pulp costs that will continue for several quarters.

However, we remain optimistic about the longer-term fundamentals for the tissue business and the growing trend of consumer preference for private label brands. It is important to note that the goodwill write-off is a non-cash charge and does not impact our current financial flexibility or the ability of our assets to generate future positive cash flows.

Looking ahead to 2019, we are focused on the following to drive strong financial performance. These areas include starting up the new paper machine at our Shelby plant to fulfill customer contracts, manufacturing quality products and optimizing the network to deliver on our operating expectations; second, maintaining the $10 million of run rate benefits related to the continuous digester and finalizing a solution for the catalyst; and third, continue focusing on generating cash flow and to begin paying down bank debt in the second half of the year.

I will provide further details on each of these initiatives later in today's prepared remarks. Now, I'll turn the call over to John to discuss our financial results.

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Linda. Let me start with a couple of high-level comments on the full year 2018 and then, get into specific comments about -- on Q4. 2018 was a challenging macro environment, and we were adversely impacted by a competitive private label tissue market and significant commodity and transportation cost inflation.

In 2018, we saw $28 million of tissue price and mix erosion versus 2017 and $40 million of commodity and transportation cost inflation versus 2017. We were able to overcome a significant portion of those headwinds through cost reduction programs and productivity gains, the lack of a major outage in 2018 and achieving higher selling prices in both businesses in the second half of the year.

During the year, we delivered $177 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is $13 million lower than 2017, due to the price mix erosion and cost inflation previously mentioned. Cash flow from operations remained strong at $169 million, approximately 10% of net sales.

Before I turn to Q4, I'd like to preface my comments by stating that throughout the rest of my remarks, I will be distinguishing between GAAP and non-GAAP or adjusted results. The reconciliation from GAAP to adjusted results is provided in the press release and supplemental slides posted on our website. For the full year, the EBITDA adjustments netted to $178 million of pre-tax expense, largely due to the $195 million non-cash impairment charge due to -- of goodwill and $8 million in reorganization-related expenses, all partially offset by a $24 million gain on the sale of Ladysmith mill, and a $2 million mark-to-market benefit associated with Directors cash-settled common stock units. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the EBITDA adjustments netted to $195 million of pre-tax expense, largely due to the goodwill impairment charge.

Now to the results. Q4 net sales were $429 million, up 53 basis points from the third quarter and above the high end of our outlook range of down 100 to 300 basis points. This was largely due to higher prices for both paperboard and tissue, offset by lower tissue shipments from the sale of the Ladysmith mill and lower seasonal demand.

Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin of 10.9% was down 95 basis points from Q3, primarily due to planned recovery boiler water washes at both the Idaho and Arkansas mills, higher volumes of purchased pulp due to previously discussed pulping process disruption at the Idaho mill, and higher natural gas prices due to a regionalized pipeline disruption, that impacted the Idaho mill.

Adjusted SG&A expense was $26 million in the fourth quarter, which is flat versus Q3, but down $4 million from Q4 2017, reflecting a $16 million annual run rate benefit from our SG&A cost reduction efforts. Corporate spending in the fourth quarter was $12 million of total SG&A expense and flat with Q3. Adjusted operating income of $20 million or 4.8% margin came in above the midpoint of our fourth quarter outlook of 4% to 5.5% and was down from 5.8% in Q3. Adjusted operating margin was impacted by the same factors as gross margin. As a result of all of that, adjusted EBITDA came in at $45 million or 10.6% of net sales, which is at the high end of our outlook of $40 million to $46 million. Net interest expense of $7 million was flat with Q3.

Turning to taxes. On an adjusted basis, our Q4 effective tax rate was 37.9%, which is above our outlook of 31%, plus or minus a couple of points, due to the tax impact of performance stock grants that did not vest. That compares to a 39.5% tax benefit in the third quarter, which included a $10 million tax benefit associated with an alternative energy production tax credit recorded in the quarter. Due to accelerated tax depreciation related to our capital projects, we did not pay federal cash taxes in 2018 and do not expect to pay federal cash income taxes in 2019.

Fourth quarter 2018 adjusted net earnings came in at $7 million or $0.44 per diluted share. That compares to adjusted net earnings of $22 million or $1.35 per diluted share in the third quarter as the Q3 tax provision was a net $6 million benefit.

Non-cash expenses in the fourth quarter of 2018 included a $195 million goodwill write-off, $26 million of depreciation and amortization, $2 million of net non-cash pension and retiree medical expense and approximately $500,000 in equity-based compensation expense.

Now, I will discuss the segment results. Consumer Products net sales were $213 million for the fourth quarter of 2018, up 52 basis points versus the third quarter due to the implementation of previously announced price increases and a richer mix, which was partially offset by the sale of Ladysmith and seasonally lower demand. Consumer Products generated $1 million of adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter, reversing the operating loss trend in the prior two quarters. Operating margin continues to improve with the implementation of operating model changes that reduced freight, external warehousing costs and headcount to offset the weakened market conditions in retail tissue. Q4 Consumer Products adjusted EBITDA margin of $60 million or 7.4% of net sales was up from $13 million or 6.3% in the third quarter.

Turning to the Pulp and Paperboard division. Pulp and Paperboard generated record high net sales of $216 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 53 basis points versus the third quarter. Average sales price per prime (ph) ton was flat to Q3 as higher pricing from our previously announced price increases was offset by weaker mix. Pulp and Paperboard's Q4 adjusted operating income was $32 million or 14.7% of net sales compared to $38 million or 17.9% of net sales in the third quarter, primarily due to weaker mix, the recovery boiler water washes, higher natural gas prices and the need to purchase higher amounts of external pulp.

Now turning to the balance sheet. Balance sheet capital expenditures were $85 million in the fourth quarter and $338 million for the full year. Fourth quarter cash capital expenditures were $122 million and was $296 million in 2018. For 2019, we expect our balance sheet capital expenditures to total $80 million, and we expect cash capital expenditures to be $130 million to $140 million. We anticipate total CapEx for the Shelby project to be approximately $420 million or $30 million higher than we estimated last quarter. As the project is coming to a close, our focus has been to make necessary investments to hold the timeline as best we could to meet our customers commitments. These investments have allowed us to overcome recurring challenges, similar to those we identified last quarter, including weather-related issues, higher building material costs and a very tight construction labor market.

We had $1 million of borrowings outstanding under the revolver at the end of the quarter and $21 million of other short-term debt. Long-term debt outstanding at the end of Q4 remain unchanged at $675 million. The secured leverage ratio for covenant purpose was 0.99 times last 12 months adjusted EBITDA versus a covenant of 2 times. We expect total net debt to peak in late Q1, early Q2 timeframe depending on the timing of cash flows and begin decreasing thereafter.

Short-term debt outstanding as reported at the end -- at year-end was impacted by certain supply chain financing transactions. Our supply chain financing programs allow vendors to be paid by financial intermediaries on trade payables earlier than the due date of the applicable invoices. In cases where we reimburse those vendors for fees that may incur in connection with the supply chain financing program, those invoices are classified as short-term debt rather than trade payables. There was $21 million of vendor invoices classified as short-term debt at December 31, 2018.

Primarily related to the accounting for that program and the appropriate classification of trade payables and short-term debt on our balance sheet, we expect to report material weaknesses in our internal controls over financial reporting as of December 31, 2018 in our upcoming Annual Report on Form 10-K. There have been no material misstatements identified and previously filed financial statements as a result of the material weaknesses, and we do not expect them to affect the timely filing of our 10-K. Remediation of those material weaknesses is expected to be completed prior to the end of fiscal 2019.

Moving on to capital allocation. Since completing the Shelby project and then paying down the revolver is our top priority, therefore we did not repurchase any stock in the fourth quarter. Approximately $30 million remains under the current stock repurchase authorization.

Turning to liquidity. We ended the fourth quarter with $22 million of unrestricted cash, and we had $120 -- $192 million available under the revolver. During the fourth quarter, we generated $48 million of cash from operating activities or a 11.1% of net sales.

That concludes my remarks, and I will now turn the call back to Linda.

Linda K. Massman -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, John. Let me now share more details regarding our strategic projects, discuss the market environment and what we expect for our business segments. Finally, I will conclude with our outlook for the first quarter and for the full year 2019. I'll start with our Shelby expansion plan, which is nearing completion and is scheduled to start producing paper in Q2. We expect the total cost to complete this expansion will run approximately $420 million, which is $80 million higher than the original estimate. This is also an increase of $30 million versus what we had estimated as of Q3. As John mentioned, we experienced some of the same issues identified during the third quarter, such as difficult weather conditions and higher cost of labor, materials and construction. Also, engineering became more specific as it relates to the equipment as we move through the last year of the project.

In addition, we implemented new leadership at the plan to ensure that our strategy remains on track to meet our customer commitments and service our current customer volumes. In fact, all of the 2019 production from the new machine capacity is committed to existing customers. Our decision to take a more conservative approach and commission the paper machine in stages to ensure a smooth ramp up of production is what led to a slightly later start-up. Before I move on, I'd like to thank the team for their hard work and dedication throughout this challenging process.

As expected, the accelerated start-up of the converting lines and regional warehouse continues to drive savings in transportation and external warehouse costs, which ultimately contribute to the improved operating earnings trend in our consumer business. We expect the new paper machine to be running at full capacity within 12 months. All of the 2019 production volume has been earmarked to fill existing customer orders. We expect initial ramp-up costs in line with typical start-up.

Turning to the continuous pulp digester project in Lewiston, Idaho, the new digester is running well and our goal for 2019 is to maintain the $10 million annual run rate benefit achieved in 2018. We also continue to make progress in resolving the challenges with the associated polysulfide reactor. Currently, we are evaluating and determining the appropriate catalyst to be tailored to our process and equipment specifications. Once we have received and installed the catalyst, we'll then optimize the pulp-making process to work toward achieving the remaining $20 million of cost benefits. As a result, we expect to realize the initial incremental benefits sometime in 2020. And last, the most important, we will continue our focus on generating operating cash flow to reduce debt levels.

Turning to our view of the market environment for each of our businesses and starting with the North American tissue market. Our consumer products business continues to bring us a mix of opportunities and challenges. While the competitive environment intensified as new capacity came online in 2018, the data suggests the consumer's acceptance and preference for private-branded products continue to grow.

For 2018, the IRI panel data estimated the US tissue market in dollar terms grew by 2.2% year-over-year, driven by healthy growth in private brands, which is up 9.3% versus a year ago. This compares to national brands that were down 60 basis points over the same period. As a result, private brand tissue market share for 2018 was approximately 30% of the total retail tissue market, up from 28% a year ago and 26% in 2015.

The positive trend in private brands is reflected in the five-year CAGR of 3.6% for private brands versus negative 0.8% for national brands. Underlying the growth in private brands is a 12.7% five-year CAGR for ultra-quality private brand products compared to 20 basis points for national brands. In the premium quality category, private brands experienced a 2.8% CAGR over the last five-year period, compared to a negative 2% for the brands.

Private brand share of total tissue products sold through the club, mass and supercenters have continued to grow over the last five years, while the grocery channel has stabilized and showed modest growth in 2018. By comparison, the dollar and drug channels have experienced a decline over the same period. In e-commerce, which is still relatively modest at less than $0.5 billion (ph), private brands grew to 24.2% of total tissue products sold over the Internet in 2018 versus 15.5% in 2017. Based on IRI data, Clearwater Paper's 2018 share of the total tissue market was 4.5% and our share of the private label portion of that market was 15.1%, down from 2017, largely due to ultra-quality capacity constraints.

We have been challenged by balancing our fixed ultra-quality capacity with growth in our existing customer base and the addition of new customers. So we are glad our new ultra capacity in Shelby will come online shortly.

Looking to 2019, RISI estimates that the US tissue market will grow approximately 1%, in line with long-term trends. And we believe the private label should continue to gain share. The most current RISI forecast for net new tissue capacity from 2019 through 2021 is 444,000 tons, which is a decline of 55,000 tons from RISI's forecast at the end of Q3, due to recently announced mill closures.

Over the next three years, RISI scheduled capacity additions, forecast 231,000 tons coming online in 2019, a 136,000 tons in 2020 and 77,000 tons in 2021. Assuming all of that capacity comes online as scheduled, plus net imports of approximately 557,000 tons and using RISI estimates for demand in North America, the demand in North American capacity ratio in 2021 is forecasted to be approximately 97%.

Turning to North American paperboard, RISI's outlook for 2019 is for a balanced market with operating rates averaging 96% for the year. RISI forecast demand for SBS to grow 4.5% in 2019, following growth of 2.2% in 2018. RISI's forecast suggests that the incremental industry capacity is likely to be absorbed by a 2.7% forecasted uptick in domestic food service and liquid packaging, approximately 7% growth in exports, and a 2% decrease in imports. 2019 prices published by RISI are still forecasting certain grades of SBS to improve approximately 5% in 2019, consistent with healthy operating rates and the relative strength in the CUK and CRB segments. As for CUK garnering a price premium to SBS, it is difficult to predict whether this trend will continue. So far, we are seeing seasonal backlog normal for this time of year. For example, if customers were to substitute in a less expensive substrates such as SBS for a CUK, this could serve to tighten up the SBS market.

In terms of our capital allocation priorities in 2019, we expect our capital will be devoted to completion of the new tissue machine at our Shelby facility with any excess cash being used to pay down debt.

Now to our first quarter of 2019 outlook compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, we expect consolidated net sales to be down 1% to 2% sequentially, primarily due to higher converted case shipments and improved mix in our consumer business, offset by lower seasonal paperboard shipments. Consolidated adjusted operating margins to be in the range of 3% to 4.5% based on higher input cost for natural gas, resulting from a disruption to one of the pipeline servicing our Lewiston mill that has resulted in an unprecedented surge in natural gas prices in the quarter, and an adjusted tax rate of 25%. We expect this to result in adjusted EBITDA in the range of $37 million to $43 million and adjusted net earnings per fully diluted share in the range of $0.16 to $0.40.

We believe our first quarter outlook represents a pretty good baseline of our business for the remainder of 2019 except for the following items. We expect natural gas prices to return to more normal levels starting in the second quarter through the fourth quarter, which should reduce costs by $4 million to $5 million per quarter going forward. And our planned major maintenance outages are scheduled for Q3 in Lewiston with an estimated cost of approximately $18 million and for Q4, in Cypress Bend with an estimated cost of around $7 million.

As we look at Clearwater Paper in 2019, there are a number of variables whose final outcome will impact our financial performance. Those include our ability to produce the right quality products to meet customer demand, input costs, particularly pulp on the tissue side as well as natural gas and wood fiber on the paperboard side; our ability to pass through cost inflation; in PPD, it's the outcome of our planned major maintenance outages in Q3 and Q4; the new domestic paperboard capacity coming online; and foreign exchange rates and their impact on paperboard exports and imports; and in CPD, the effect of new entrants to the North American tissue market and channel shifts within retail tissue. In conclusion, 2019 will be a transitional year as we make necessary investments managed through ongoing headwinds and ramp production at Shelby.

While current market conditions in our consumer business continue to be challenging near term, we are encouraged that industry fundamentals in both the tissue and paperboard businesses bode well for the long term. In closing, I'd like to thank our employees who are at the heart of Clearwater Paper for their commitment to always making our operation safer and more efficient, while keeping a sharp focus on the needs of our customers. I also want to thank our customers who make us better every day and for the support of our shareholders.

With that, we'll now take your questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Chip Dillon with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

Hi. guys, This is Salvador Tiano sitting for Chip. How are you?

Linda K. Massman -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Hi.

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Okay. How are you?

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

I'm good. So a couple of questions. I just look for lazy things, which are on the -- how should we think a little bit about tissue? I think last quarter, there was -- you're maintaining high levels of parent roll tissue shipments in order -- offsetting essentially the Kroger loss volumes and also this quarter a decline. And I'm wondering what does this mean as we go forward, is this the Q4 kind of the right mix to think about for the remaining of the year first of all. And secondly, the non-retail pricing came up significantly and I wonder why that is. Is it because of lower again parent roll versus away-from-home shipments or what else drove that?

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So the reduction in parent roll shipments was largely due to the fact that we sold Ladysmith late in the third quarter and that was pretty much all parent roll shipments coming out of that facility.

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

And with regard to the pricing non-retail going up?

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And that just -- it's a function of not having the Ladysmith in the mix because that was a -- it was recycled paper. So we don't have as high as pricing on that.

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

Okay, great. And then, a little bit to clarify on Shelby, you mentioned that the -- firstly on the start-up, you mentioned it is little bit delayed versus original expectations. You mentioned now Q2. When we think first of all Q2, are we talking April 1 or we are talking June?

And secondly, how are you -- now that you know -- essentially, you're almost in the finish line, but it seems the project was -- is not going to deliver an attractive return to the contrary, given all the stress it puts on the equity value of the Company. I'm not really sure it's added a lot of value. How is the Company thinking about -- how is the feedback process internally about making these decisions and making sure they are corrected and in the future, large projects are taken a little bit with less risk making sure that you don't see the same issues that you saw right now where the leverage was really high, you had to amend your covenants many times, what is being done internally to make sure you're not going to see that again?

Linda K. Massman -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah. So, let's start with your first question regarding Shelby and the start-up and whether or not we can give more specificity other than just Q2. I would say this time, we're just saying we're going to start the tissue machine in Q2, the slight difference from what we originally expected, and the slight difference just being somewhat semantics on how we're starting up the machine. We're really taking a very thorough and thoughtful approach to methodically commissioning all of the systems and ensuring that they work well together before we begin up the machine. The capacity and the production coming out of the new investment in Shelby is critical to our long-term strategy to be able to meet our customer commitments.

As I talked about on the market trends, we're seeing strong demand in the ultra category, and this is also where we are capacity constrained. So Shelby will give us that extra capacity to be able to meet those customer commitments and, as we indicated, we already have customer contracts to meet our 2019 production. So we feel so good about the ability to take care of what our customers are looking for from us and the investment in Shelby.

You asked about the project and some of the extra spending and some of the surprises we've had along the way. I think anytime you're looking at a multi-year project in an environment that is as dynamic as the tissue industry and one that has gone -- undergone so much change over the past few years, it's always difficult to predict. At the beginning of that kind of a project, what kind of conditions you're going to be faced with going forward, but your thoughts about how do we manage risk and how do we look at this going forward. I would tell you, we take that very seriously at a management level and at a Board level with regard to making large capital investments in how we look at the risk, how we'll manage through it. Our team has been actively engaged in trying to mitigate these cost increases that we've seen as it relates to the economic conditions in which we're investing a lot of capital and a lot of these being cost of labor, costs of construction material, things that are somewhat difficult to avoid to keep a project on track and on time, but I will tell you like any major project, we will go back, we will look at what could we have done better, what could we have done differently and that will absolutely be taken into consideration to make us better going forward.

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Thank you, and good afternoon.

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Roger.

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Hey. I wanted to discuss a little further some of the reporting control weaknesses. Do you expect any impact on sales and EBITDA, and what were some of the key issues that you identified from this?

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we don't expect any impact on sales or EBITDA. It's a balance sheet reclassification within current liabilities. I'd refer back to my commentary that is associated with the supply chain financing and we ended up making a payment to a vendor and that shouldn't have happened and so, the controls over that program in particular and over or call it judgmental complex, accounting issues in general is where we need to take up those controls.

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Okay. And you impaired Cellu Tissue for a variety of reasons. You pointed to tissue pricing, freight and other general market environment forces. Why wouldn't those adverse impacts cause you to impair the legacy Clearwater Paper assets or is there something about Cellu Tissue that was different than legacy Clearwater? Obviously, legacy Clearwater was more ultra toilet (ph) tissue and Cellu Tissue was down toward the dollar. But it sounds like these were sort of general market issues?

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

They were general market issues, impaired goodwill first, and once that happened, from a cash flow standpoint, we had enough to support the remaining assets within the CPD division.

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Got it. And lastly, and I can take this offline. And it just came up on EBT, the transcript, but you mentioned that there is balance sheet CapEx of $80 million, which I guess I'm taking that to mean, that's what you're showing your cash flow statement and then you said, there is cash capital expenditures of $130 million to $140 million, which is the CapEx or what's the difference between those two numbers? I'm unfamiliar with that (technical difficulty).

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Actually, it's the opposite. $130 million and $140 million is what it will show up on the cash flow statement, but using accrual base accounting would actually hit property, plant equipment on the balance sheet, is the $80 million.

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Oh, you're referring to the PP&E in the balance sheet. Okay, got it. All right. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the Clearwater Paper fourth quarter and fiscal year 2018 earnings conference call. We do appreciate your participation and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.

Duration: 37 minutes

Call participants:

Robin S. Yim -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Linda K. Massman -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

John D. Hertz -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Salvador Tiano -- Vertical Research Partners -- Analyst

Roger Spitz -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

More CLW analysis

Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Casey's General Stores Continues Its Slow and Steady Progress

Coming out of the Great Recession, few companies performed as well as Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY). The small-town convenience and gasoline store returned 550% for investors between March 2009 and the May 2016 retirement of then-CEO Robert Myers.

After that, however, came a spell of disappointing results and mixed signals from the new leadership team under the direction of current CEO Terry Handley. What followed was two years of substantial market underperformance.

But in late 2018, the company appeared to regain its footing.

This week's earnings release for the company's fiscal third quarter shows that trend has continued.

Elevated view of rural highway

Casey's helps keep these cars -- and their drivers -- running. Image source: Getty Images.

Casey's earnings: The raw numbers

Before diving deeper into the company's performance, let's look at the most-followed metrics.

Metric Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Growth 
Revenue $2.05 billion $2.05 billion 0%
EPS $1.13 $0.48* 135%

Data source: SEC filings. *Represents results after backing out one-time tax advantage of new tax rules signed into law last year.

"Effective operating expense control, combined with a favorable fuel margin environment and continued focus on strategic pricing, produced strong diluted earnings-per-share growth," Handley said in the earnings press release.

Investors shouldn't read too much into the company's flat revenue growth. Gas is by far the biggest component of sales, even though the profits from the company's other two segments -- groceries and prepared foods -- are the bigger profit drivers. And because the price of gas can fluctuate so widely, changes in revenue don't give us a very clear picture of how the company's doing. That's also why it's not that surprising to see such a dramatic increase in earnings off flat revenue growth.

Digging deeper

To get a better idea of all the company's moving parts, let's look at how all three divisions performed. Following solid results last quarter, management updated its fiscal 2019 goals for all segments.

Comps in this table is short for sales at comparable stores -- a metric that backs out the effect of new stores opened in the past year. 

Metric Fiscal 2019 Goal Goal Met? Fiscal Q3 Results
Fuel comps (1%) to 0.5% No (3.4%)
Fuel margin $0.19 to $0.21 Yes, exceeded $0.22
Grocery comps 1.5% to 3% Yes, exceeded 3.4%
Grocery margin 31.5% to 32.5% Yes 31.9%
Prepared-food comps 1.5% to 3.5% Yes 1.5%
Prepared-food margin 60% to 62% Yes, exceeded 62.3%

Data source: Casey's.

While missing fuel comps goals isn't great, the fact that margins outpaced expectations helps soften the blow. The big story is that both the grocery and prepared-food categories came in ahead of expectations.

Last quarter, packaged beverages and cigarette sales helped push groceries to solid gains. Handley said Casey's is experiencing market share gains in the broadly defined category.

What's more, with fuel comps down 3.4%, its fair to assume that there's less traffic at Casey's than last year. But even so, it's clearly selling more goods inside the store -- an impressive feat. 

The company hopes to capitalize on this momentum by beginning to integrate e-commerce and mobile commerce in store operations, and piloting a price optimization program for both groceries and prepared goods that varies price by market.

Looking ahead

Because the company's fiscal year ends on April 30, the current quarter will be the last of fiscal 2019. Management made a few changes to the overall comps and margin goals. 

On the negative side, the midpoint of fuel comps was lowered from negative-0.25% to negative-1.25%. But that is canceled out by an improved outlook on prepared-food margins, the midpoint of which increased from 61% to 61.5%.

Management also indicated that it might fall short of its new store construction by April 30, as the previous outlook of "60-plus stores" was lowered to "55-60 stores."

But perhaps most important, Handley and his crew indicated that operations are getting leaner and more efficient. Growth in operating expenses for the year is expected to come in at a midpoint of 8.5%, an improvement from the previous estimate of 9.5%. And depreciation and amortization expenses are also going to eat up less revenue growth, with expected growth of just 12%, compared with the previous midpoint of 14%.

The takeaway is a company that appears to be getting a much firmer handle on what each fiscal year will produce, with leaner operations that allow for more cash to drop to the bottom line.

Forget Kimberly-Clark: Procter & Gamble Is the Better Dividend Stock

They each sell branded staple products like diapers and tissue paper to consumers around the world. But that's about where the similarities end between Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Kimberly Clark (NYSE:KMB). The companies have posted dramatically different operating results in the last year, in fact, which put P&G in a stronger, and improving, market position while its smaller rival still struggles with its rebound plan.

Those dynamics suggest income investors would be better off buying Procter & Gamble today even though the stock's yield is lower. Let's take a closer look at this stock match-up.

P&G vs Kimberly Clark stocks

Metric

P&G

Kimberly Clark

Market cap

$247 billion

$40 billion

Sales growth

2%

1%

Operating profit margin

22%

17%

Dividend yield

2.9%

3.6%

P/E ratio

29

24

52-week performance

24%

3%

Sales growth excludes acquisitions and divestments and is on a constant-currency basis for the past complete fiscal year. Data sources: Company financial filings and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Sales and profit momentum

The past few quarterly reports have painted starkly different pictures for these two businesses. Procter & Gamble posted a market-thumping 4% organic sales increase over the last six months, while Kimberly Clark's growth has been closer to 2%. P&G is finding success in areas like beauty and fabric care, which is offsetting a continued slump in its Gillette shaving franchise. Kimberly Clark, on the other hand, has struggled with falling sales volumes in the core U.S. market. P&G's sales footprint isn't as heavily tilted toward that one geography, and that global posture is just another reason the consumer products giant is outperforming right now.

A mother shops with her child.

Image source: Getty Images.

There's even more daylight between the two companies when it comes to profits. Both competitors are trying to strike a balance between market share and the need to raise prices as commodity costs increase. P&G is faring much better at this challenge. Last quarter's 4% organic sales boost was powered by a healthy mix of rising volumes and improving prices. Kimberly Clark's volume was flat over the past year, and its 2% sales uptick in the past six months came entirely from increased prices.

Finances and outlook

P&G is in a stronger financial position, too. Operating profit margin has inched up toward 22% of sales in the last year, while Kimberly Clark's comparable metric declined to 17% from 18.4%. Their outlooks are starkly different on this score. Back in late January, Kimberly Clark CEO Mike Hsu sounded a cautious tone about pricing and volume challenges, saying, "it's appropriate not to plan for much improvement right now." P&G, on the other hand, cited firming demand momentum when it raised its fiscal 2019 guidance.

Investors have responded to these diverging trends by sending P&G shares much higher in the past year while Kimberly Clark's have barely kept up with the market. As a result, Kimberly Clark is cheaper on a price-to-earnings basis and delivers a more robust 3.6% dividend yield.

Still, that discount isn't enough, in my view, to make Kimberly Clark a more attractive buy right now. With sales volumes barely improving, the company is likely to struggle at least through 2019 to get its profitability back on the right track. P&G, meanwhile, has a firm foundation it can build on to start capturing more market share while sending piles of cash back to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks.