Will BP Stock Find a Strong Bid?

With shares of BP (NYSE:BP) trading around $41, is BP an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

BP is an integrated oil and gas company. The firm provides its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, lubricants, and the petrochemicals products used to make items like paints, clothes, and packaging. It operates in two business segments: exploration and production, and refining and marketing. BP provides energy products to consumers and companies worldwide. Without the oil and gas products provided, many consumers and businesses would not be able to operate on a daily basis.

BP had a recent victory in court as the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans decided recently that the claims administrator for the government, Patrick Juneau, needs to be more discriminating about claims related to BP's 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Reuters reports. The court also ruled to stop payments on claims that don't meet the new, stricter standards. After the spill, BP agreed to be responsible for economic losses but has complained that it's been forced to pay claims for people and businesses that were not harmed by the disaster.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

BP stock has not made significant progress in recent years. The stock is currently trading near mid-prices for the year so it may need to spend a little more time here. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, BP is trading between its key averages, which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of BP options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
BP Options	22.31%	96%	95%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
October Options	Flat	Average
November Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on BP’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for BP look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	233.67%	192.30%	-78.97%	8.03%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-0.74%	10.06%	7.51%	-4.72%
Earnings Reaction	-3.20%	2.28%	1.35%	2.78%

BP has seen increasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have mostly been pleased with BP’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has BP stock done relative to its peers, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDSA), and sector?

	BP	Chevron	Exxon Mobil	Royal Dutch Shell	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	0.16%	7.93%	-1.18%	-7.25%	1.16%

BP has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

BP is an oil and gas company that supplies energy products and services worldwide. The company saw a victory at the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans recently, which may be a positive catalyst for the company. The stock has not made significant progress in recent years and is now trading near mid-prices for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been rising while revenues have been mixed, which has left investors mostly pleased about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its weak peers and sector, BP has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what BP does in coming quarters.